BTC after the biggest loss in history: $32 billion in realized losses has bottomed out, and a rebound signal has already appeared?

As of February 12, 2026, according to Gate market data, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently priced at $67,264.3, with a 24-hour trading volume of $969.13 million, a market capitalization stable at $1.38 trillion, and a market share of 55.93%. Just a week ago, the market experienced a historic plunge — not only a price collapse but also a complete restructuring of on-chain losses.

$3.2 Billion Single-Day Loss: Bitcoin’s Most Painful “Cut” in 16 Years

On February 5, 2026, Bitcoin’s price plummeted from $70,000 to around $60,000 within a few hours. This day not only caused over $1.3 billion in secondary market liquidations but also left unprecedented traces of loss on the blockchain.

According to Glassnode’s entity-adjusted realized loss metric, the realized losses on February 5 alone reached as high as $3.2 billion — officially surpassing the $2.7 billion loss during the Terra (LUNA) collapse in 2022, making it the largest single-day loss in dollar value in Bitcoin’s on-chain history.

Entity-adjusted realized loss, source: Glassnode

Data platform Checkonchain characterized this sell-off as a “textbook-level capitulation event”: rapid, high-volume, with low-conviction holders completely exiting. Daily net losses exceeded $1.5 billion for several days in a row, a scale of capital evaporation unseen in any previous bear market. However, it’s important to note that massive losses are not necessarily a sign of ongoing disaster but often mark the beginning of a bottom.

Why Do Massive Losses Sometimes Signal a Bottom?

There is a classic inverse logic between on-chain data and market sentiment: when losses reach historic extremes, it often indicates capitulation and exhaustion of selling pressure.

Weak Hands Are Cleared

During this decline, realized losses were highly concentrated among short-term holders and highly leveraged longs. These groups tend to chase prices higher and cut losses early during sharp declines. Their exit, paradoxically, clears the market of the “least committed” chips. Historical data tracked by Gate Research shows that similar capitulation events (such as in 2020, May 2022) have been followed by rebounds of over 40% within 1 to 3 months.

Structural Differences from the LUNA Collapse

Although the scale of losses exceeds that of the LUNA period, the current market structure is fundamentally different. The 2022 LUNA collapse involved systemic credit crises with CeFi institutions (Three Arrows Capital, BlockFi, Voyager) facing chain-wide liquidations; it was a systemic credit crisis. This time, the decline is more about leverage unwinding after prices reverted to mean levels. Gate market data shows Bitcoin is currently trading at $67,264.3, well above the $19,000 level during the 2022 crash. The rapid correction from high levels is not the end of a bull market but a cooling of overheated sentiment.

Whale Addresses Accumulating in Reverse

While retail investors panic-sell, on-chain monitoring shows addresses holding over 1,000 BTC have net accumulated nearly 50,000 BTC over the past 30 days. This “retail selling, whale buying” divergence is a classic bottom indicator.

Current Market Overview

As of February 12, 2026, Gate real-time data provides the following key metrics:

7-day change: -11.59%

30-day change: -23.78%

1-year change: -28.23%

From a price structure perspective, Bitcoin has rebounded over 12% from the February 5 low of $60,000, regaining the $67,000 level. This is a typical “V-shaped recovery” pattern, similar to the bottom structures after the 519 event in 2021 and the FTX collapse in November 2022.

Mid- to Long-Term Outlook: Bottoming Out and Value Rebound Expected

Based on on-chain cost basis models, macro liquidity expectations, and halving cycle effects, Gate provides a neutral forecast for BTC prices from 2026 to 2031:

It’s important to emphasize that these forecasts are based on on-chain cost distribution, stock-flow models, and linear extrapolation of institutional adoption curves, and do not constitute investment advice. The market always carries nonlinear volatility risks, but historical data shows that choosing pessimism after “the largest on-chain loss in history” often entails higher risk than maintaining optimism.

Conclusion: Maintain Professional Calm at the Largest Historical Capitulation

On-chain data objectively shows that last week’s crash resulted in Bitcoin’s largest realized loss ever; a bottoming signal is emerging. The $3.2 billion realized loss indicates that $3.2 billion worth of chips changed hands amid fear; meanwhile, nearly $1 billion in 24-hour liquidity on the BTC/USDT spot trading pair on Gate demonstrates market depth remains solid.

Bitcoin will not vanish because of a record loss, just as it has survived countless “deaths” over the past sixteen years. For professional traders, the key is not to avoid losses but to recognize structural reversal signals after extreme losses. At this moment, on-chain signals have shifted from “panic selling” to “bottom accumulation.” The largest on-chain loss in history is behind us, and markets often turn quietly at their most pessimistic points.