XRP technical indicators strengthen but buying volume drops sharply, can the rebound at $1.34 continue?

As of February 12, 2026, according to Gate market data, Ripple (XRP) is currently trading at $1.37, up 0.88% over the past 24 hours with moderate price fluctuations. However, behind this seemingly stable price, a rare confrontation is unfolding between technical signals and on-chain data: on the 12-hour chart, RSI shows a clear bullish divergence structure reminiscent of the pre-rebound in December 2025; yet, spot market buy volume has collapsed by 85% compared to earlier, and long-term holders’ accumulation rate has dropped by over 60%.

This article, based on Gate market data, penetrates this contradictory pattern to clarify the actual distribution of long and short positions within the key $1.34–$1.50 range for XRP, and provides a quantitative reference for the medium-term price path from 2026 to 2031.

Technical Divergence: RSI Repeats Classic Pre-Rebound Pattern

Since late January 2026, XRP has formed a noteworthy technical pattern on the Gate spot market: the price has made successive lower lows, but the 12-hour RSI has simultaneously formed higher lows. This pattern is defined in technical analysis as bullish divergence, typically indicating waning downward momentum and diminishing selling pressure.

Historical fractals offer reference. At the end of December 2025, XRP also exhibited such divergence on the 12-hour chart, then recovered the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) on January 2, 2026, and gained over 28% within the following nine trading days. Currently, RSI reads about 41, still in a neutral to weak zone, but the structural outline is highly similar.

XRP history, source: TradingView

However, the biggest difference this time is the severe lack of volume support. Gate platform data shows that XRP’s total trading volume over the past 24 hours was $96.37 million, near a three-month low. Historical experience suggests that technical rebounds lacking spot volume backing tend to have weak continuation.

On-chain evidence of an 85% collapse in buy volume: from exchange flows to long-term holder behavior

The apparent rebound signal has failed to persuade users to move assets out of exchanges. On-chain tracking shows XRP experienced a net outflow of about 107 million tokens from exchanges on February 8; by February 11, this had sharply decreased to around 16 million tokens. This indicates that the market-driven buying momentum—transferring tokens from trading platforms into cold wallets—shrunk by 85% within three days.

Decreased trading flow, source: Glassnode

Even more concerning is the behavior shift among long-term holders (wallets with holdings >155 days). This group was accumulating at a rate of 337 million XRP per day on February 1, but by February 11, this had fallen to 128 million, a 62% decline. This suggests that even as technical signals turn optimistic, the most market-cycle-aware capital is not actively participating.

Long-term holders not participating, source: Glassnode

The dual confirmation of “rising exchange balances” and “slowing long-term accumulation” indicates that the current market is not in an active accumulation phase but is passively waiting for clearer directional signals.

Derivatives Market Insights: Why Spot Buy Volume Is Reluctant to Enter?

To understand holders’ caution, one must examine the risk structure in the derivatives market. In perpetual contracts, the next 30-day liquidation data shows a significant short bias: approximately $148 million in short liquidations versus only $83 million in long liquidations. This suggests that strategic traders are generally adopting a defensive stance, preferring to establish hedges at rebound highs.

XRP liquidation map, source: Coinglass

The short-term liquidation map reveals even more immediate vulnerabilities. On major spot exchanges like Gate, long liquidations reach $63.9 million, compared to $51 million in short liquidations, indicating that long leverage exposure is about 30% higher. This structure means that any mild decline in XRP could trigger a cascade of forced liquidations among leveraged longs, further intensifying spot selling pressure.

Short-term XRP liquidation map, source: Coinglass

Long-term holders are well aware of this “crowded long” scenario. Before leverage is fully unwound, even if technical rebound signals appear, informed capital is reluctant to enter recklessly. This explains why spot buy volume not only failed to rebound after divergence signals but actually accelerated its decline.

Real-Time Key Price Levels for XRP

Based on Gate’s latest quotes and on-chain liquidation data as of February 12, 2026, XRP has compressed into a very narrow volatility zone:

Gate analysts believe XRP is currently forming a “low liquidity compression zone” between $1.34 and $1.50. Any volume breakout in either direction could trigger at least 12%–15% trend extension. Investors should closely monitor Gate spot trading volume—if the rebound cannot be accompanied by daily average volume exceeding $150 million, the price structure will still be characterized as a downward continuation.

( XRP price analysis, source: TradingView

Medium- to Long-Term Price Forecast (2026–2031)

Any short-term analysis must be considered within the context of long-term value ranges. Gate’s research team, based on on-chain cost distribution, cyclical volatility, and institutional capital inflow models, provides the following quantitative forecast framework:

It is important to emphasize that these paths assume continuous spot ETF absorption of supply and a moderate increase in institutional allocation. Currently, net inflows into spot XRP ETFs have reached $1.23 billion, with assets under management around $1.01 billion, and a major bank has disclosed a $153 million XRP ETF holding. While such structural capital may not prevent short-term emotional sell-offs, it provides a much stronger bottom buffer than in 2018 or 2022.

Conclusion: Rebound Structure Still Present, But Confirmation Signals Not Yet

XRP faces a rare “multi-layered contradiction”:

• Technical: momentum indicators improve, selling pressure diminishes;
• On-chain: exchange net outflows collapse, long-term capital halts;
• Derivatives: crowded longs, hollow dominance, low risk appetite.

As long as XRP remains above $1.34, the technical rebound structure remains intact. However, until spot buy volume clearly rebounds and daily closes hold above $1.50, all upward moves should be viewed as corrections rather than reversals. Gate will continue to monitor structural changes in exchange flows and liquidation maps, providing users with first-hand objective data.