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#我在Gate广场过新年 The darkest hour before dawn—Bitcoin’s $66,000 support line is under threat, and the market is waiting in panic for the final “clearance”

This morning, the price did not show the anticipated “pre-CPI data rebound,” but instead slowly tested the bottom amid decreasing volume. According to real-time data at 09:40 AM, the market is undergoing a “boiling frog” confidence test: after a brief rebound above $68,000 yesterday, Bitcoin quickly retreated and is now trading around $66,456, having remained below the $67,000 level for three consecutive days. Ethereum’s situation is even more difficult, currently at $1,948, with the $2,000 psychological barrier officially broken. Every faint attempt at a rebound is ruthlessly crushed by heavier selling pressure—this is not panic selling, but a slow erosion of confidence.

1 Morning Brief: Risk aversion sweeps globally, cryptocurrencies serve as the most honest mirror of “risk appetite”
Today’s weakness is not an isolated tragedy of the digital market but a reflection of synchronized de-risking across global capital markets. When the tide recedes, highly volatile digital assets are the first to be exposed on the beach.
● Nature and origin of the trend: Overnight, the three major US stock indices all closed lower, with the Nasdaq dropping nearly 2% intraday. Precious metals, also labeled as “inflation hedges” like Bitcoin, experienced even more severe sell-offs—silver plunged 11% in a single day, platinum and palladium both fell over 5%. This synchronized correction across asset classes completely shattered the short-term narrative bubble of “Bitcoin as digital gold.”
The cold, hard fact: in true risk-off moments, capital prefers the dollar, US Treasuries, and Swiss francs—digital currencies are nowhere to be found.
● The continued rise of stablecoin dominance: TBO indicator shows all four timeframes of stablecoin market share are strongly bullish. This is the most honest position expression by professional traders—they are pulling real money out of high-volatility assets and into “cash equivalents” waiting for the storm to pass. Once this defensive rotation forms a trend, it’s difficult to reverse in the short term.
● Structural changes revealed by liquidation data: Over the past four hours, total liquidations reached $63.12 million, with long positions accounting for over 80%. Compared to the brutal liquidations two weeks ago, where 200,000 traders were wiped out, the current scale is significantly smaller. This indicates that high leverage positions have been largely cleared, and also suggests that—market enthusiasm for long positions is waning, replaced by a slow decline under liquidity drought.
● $63,000 becomes the new psychological battleground:
Technical analysts generally shift their focus to the $63,000 level. If this support is broken, a bear flag pattern may be confirmed, with the next technical target at $60,000 or even the $50,000 level warned by Standard Chartered Bank.

2 Technical Analysis: Key support levels are peeling away layer by layer, market enters a “resistance-free” bottom-testing phase
When short-term supports at $67,000, $66,500, and others are broken one after another without strong rebounds, the market has entered a dangerous stage where support levels degrade from “defensive positions” to “psychological markers.” Bitcoin technical analysis: $66,000 is the short-term bull-bear dividing line. On the sensitive 4-hour chart below, Bitcoin is forming a clear but dangerous descending flag pattern.
● Short-term range shifts downward: Over the past 72 hours, Bitcoin’s core trading range has shifted from $67,000–$68,500 to $66,000–$67,200. $66,000 is now the most fragile short-term support—more of a historical signpost reading “support once existed here” than a strong support level.
● Deadly combination of volume and price: The most alarming signal in this decline is the rebound with no volume and decline with volume. When Bitcoin briefly touched $68,000 yesterday, trading volume was significantly lower than the previous day at the same price level. This indicates that bulls no longer have the willingness or ability to organize an effective counterattack—not that they can’t, but that they don’t dare.
● Market consensus shifting toward $60,000: Standard Chartered Bank explicitly predicts that before Bitcoin revisits $100,000, it may first test the $50,000 level. Data from prediction market platforms show that the probability of Bitcoin dropping to $55,000 first is 58% higher than rising to $84,000. When the most optimistic institutions and the most aggressive traders are lowering their expectations, ignoring this consensus could be costly.
● The last barrier of the medium- and long-term trend line: From a broader weekly perspective, the $60,000–$62,000 zone is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the upward trend since November 2024, and also the average cost zone for many long-term holders. If this level is broken, the market will enter a “deep water zone” with no historical reference points.

Ethereum technical analysis: $2,000 is officially broken, and $2,100 becomes an insurmountable barrier for bulls. The Ethereum chart is evolving into a record of the gradual collapse of bullish confidence.
3● The role reversal of $2,000 from support to resistance: In the past week’s repeated battles, the $2,000 level has completely transformed from a “defensive bottom line” into a “rebound ceiling.” Every attempt to reclaim this level ends in failure more quickly, and $2,100 has become an “overhead line” that bulls cannot breach. The early morning quote of $1,948 indicates that Ethereum investors who built positions over the past three months are now all at a loss.
● On-chain indicators enter “surrender zone”: Ethereum’s MVRV Z-Score has been in negative territory for several days, a typical signal that the price is below the on-chain average cost. Historically, this is an area where long-term investors start to accumulate, but “undervaluation” and “reversal” are separated by time and patience.
● Standard Chartered Bank’s $1,400 bottom forecast: In its latest report, Standard Chartered explicitly predicts Ethereum may rebound to $4,000 by 2026, but before that, the price could first dip to $1,400 to complete a final shakeout. This is the most pessimistic yet clear short-term target from mainstream institutions.
● Whales’ leverage dilemma: On-chain data shows that an address holds a 25x leveraged long position in Ethereum. A further drop of about 4% from the current level would trigger a new round of large-scale liquidations. Leverage is not a weapon but a Damocles sword hanging over longs’ heads—it cut down on February 6 and now creaks again.

3 News Analysis: Macro cold wave, regulatory shifts, and institutional “cautious turn”
The core contradiction in the current market has evolved from “When will the Fed cut rates” to a deeper triple-layer structural doubt: Is the risk-hedging narrative valid? Is the regulatory framework friendly? Where does incremental capital come from?
a Macro core: The risk-hedging narrative faces collective invalidation Yesterday’s asset prices are the harshest stress test for Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative. When US stocks fall, Bitcoin falls; when precious metals plunge, Bitcoin is not immune. In the face of genuine global risk-off sentiment, Bitcoin has shown no independence from gold but instead amplifies risk appetite. Ironically, the 30-year US Treasury auction recorded its lowest primary dealer allotment since 2008, indicating that “smart money” is flowing into traditional safe assets. The result of capital voting with its feet is more convincing than any debate.
b Regulatory developments: The Fed’s “framework acceptance” signals a trend—digital currencies are being incorporated into more formal and tighter regulatory frameworks. The Fed’s working paper first proposed classifying digital assets as a separate asset class and setting differentiated initial margin requirements for derivatives trading. This is an important signal of technical acceptance at the federal level—acknowledging their existence, regulating their risks, rather than allowing unrestrained growth. For compliant institutions, this is a long-term positive.
c Institutional movements: From “consistent bullishness” to “defensive contraction”
Standard Chartered’s latest forecast clearly reflects a shift in professional financial institutions’ mindset: while maintaining a long-term bullish outlook, they have lowered Bitcoin’s target price to $100,000 in the short term and warned that the market may first bottom at $50,000. More notably, the change in ETF holdings—total assets under management in Bitcoin ETFs have fallen 41% from their peak, and Ethereum ETFs have shrunk by 43%. This is not a scale of fund outflows that retail investors can cause alone; behind it are active de-risking by institutional allocations. When the most steadfast buyers start to exit and watch from the sidelines, the market’s pricing anchor also drifts.

4 Market outlook and strategy: Seek probability advantages in despair, not precise bottoms
The current market’s core feature is highly consensus pessimism. When everyone is discussing “how much further will it fall” rather than “when will it rise,” the mid-term bottom may not be far away—but “not far” does not mean “already reached,” nor does it mean “immediate reversal.” In the short term, the market is expected to enter a final wait-and-see period before CPI data release, with volatility possibly further compressed but sharply amplified once the data is out.
● Bitcoin: The core observation range has shifted down to $65,800–$67,200. Focus on the fight around $66,000. If broken downward, the next technical support is in the $63,000–$64,000 zone. Any rebound that cannot sustain volume above $67,500 is considered a reduction window.
● Ethereum: The core range is $1,900–$2,000. If $1,950 is lost, the last short-term barrier is at $1,880 (November 2025 low). Mainly weak linkage; hopes for independent movement should be temporarily shelved.

Core strategies and recommendations:
1. Acknowledge market weakness, respect trend forces: Do not invent stories of “shakeouts” or “trap longs” for declines. The decline itself is the most complete expression of information. The market is currently in a weekly downtrend channel; any counter-trend operation is fighting against the trend. The safest approach remains light or even zero holdings, observing patiently.
2. Distinguish “left-side bottoming” from “value investing”: Some investors keep adding to positions during declines under the guise of “long-term optimism.” It’s important to realize—value investing requires a cost advantage and proper timing. Before the trend reverses, every bottoming attempt is “left-side bottoming,” leaving room for continued declines. Use phased, small-scale, extended time horizons; this risk-reward profile is more suitable than “all-in” at once.
3. Watch CPI data but avoid overtrading: The US January CPI data released tonight is the most important macro variable in the short term. But beware—extreme pessimism may cause good news to be ignored and bad news to be exaggerated. Don’t preemptively go all-in on bets about the data; wait for clear volume and price reactions before making decisions. Certainty is more important than yield.
4. Maintain observation amid panic, prepare watchlists in silence: The current price zone is the best window for long-term investors to build deep research lists. No need to rush orders, but continuous tracking of quality projects is essential. When market sentiment shifts from “extreme fear” (current 9–20 range) toward “fear,” it’s the right time to consider gradual deployment. Deep research first, then the confidence to build positions.

The market bottom is never a specific support line on a candlestick chart, nor a certain integer level mentioned by analysts, nor the last tier in your averaging plan. The true bottom is the process where, when panic reaches a point where no one dares to talk about a bottom, the market re-establishes order from the ruins itself.