Bitcoin Faces Bearish Pressures as Technical Support Crumbles

Bitcoin is under mounting pressure as traders grapple with a shifting market landscape. After breaking through key support levels, BTC has entered uncertain territory with sentiment turning distinctly bearish. Many analysts are now comparing current price action to previous bear market cycles, raising concerns about deeper downside risk ahead.

Price Plunge Below Critical Support—What’s Next?

The recent decline has been sharp and unforgiving. Bitcoin dropped significantly in recent sessions, pushing price action near $77,600 and currently hovering around $66,520 according to latest data—marking ten-month lows. The loss of the $80,000 support level, particularly the critical zone near $80,700 (the true market mean), has broken a key pillar of bull market confidence. With bulls unable to reclaim these levels, BTC remains vulnerable to further downside exploration.

The 21-Week EMA Warning: Historical Bear Market Signals

One of the most concerning technical signals is Bitcoin’s recent break below the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA). Historically, this crossover has served as a critical warning sign preceding major bear market phases. Rekt Capital highlighted that the current move mirrors patterns from previous cycles. Since this latest EMA crossover, Bitcoin has already declined approximately 17%, falling from the $90,000 zone to current levels around $66,520.

This same technical pattern last occurred in April 2022, just before a prolonged bearish decline that extended for months. The parallel is hard to ignore for traders watching historical precedent.

On-Chain Metrics Flash Bearish Signals

The bearish narrative becomes more convincing when examining on-chain data. According to CryptoQuant’s latest analysis, Bitcoin is now trading below the realized price of investors who have held BTC for 12–18 months. Realized price represents the average cost basis where coins were last moved—essentially marking the breakeven level for medium-term holders.

When BTC breaks below this threshold and stays there, markets typically shift from normal corrections into structural bearish regimes. Currently, realized price is acting as overhead resistance, meaning rallies may struggle as holders attempt to exit at breakeven. This combination of price vulnerability, negative profitability signals, and slowing accumulation has historically aligned with extended bearish phases in past cycles.

Downside Targets and Short-Term Relief Zones

Some traders are already identifying deeper liquidity zones. The next major support level sits near $74,400, while a more severe scenario would target $49,180 if the decline accelerates further. These targets show how quickly market sentiment has shifted after key support failed to hold.

However, not all near-term movement is necessarily lower. Some traders are watching a CME futures gap near $84,000 that could trigger a short-term bounce. CME gaps often act like price magnets, and BTC could attempt a temporary rebound toward that zone in coming weeks. That said, any relief would likely prove short-lived unless major support zones are meaningfully reclaimed.

Risk Management in a Bearish Environment

The convergence of broken technical levels, deteriorating on-chain structure, and bearish historical parallels creates a challenging backdrop for Bitcoin. While a brief rebound toward $84,000 remains possible, the broader bearish trend appears intact. Analysts are increasingly comfortable discussing downside scenarios including sub-$50,000 levels if historical patterns continue to repeat.

For traders and holders, the current environment demands disciplined risk management. Technical support has failed, sentiment has turned bearish, and on-chain fundamentals are showing structural weakness. Until major support zones are reclaimed and on-chain conditions improve, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.