Bitcoin and "Animated Panda" - Are Bearish Structure Signals Emerging?

The Bitcoin market is currently showing warning signs that could shift it from a normal correction phase to a true bearish structure. Like a “hockey stick”—both cute and hesitant—the Bitcoin market is revealing uncertainty, with the next move unclear. The latest data from blockchain analysis communities is ringing alarm bells.

SALL Indicator - Signals from Fearful Investors

CryptoQuant’s top analyst Woominkyu pointed out a notable phenomenon: the Spent-Output Lifetime Bands (SALL) are beginning to rise again. This isn’t a slight increase; it’s a significant shift in the market’s movement.

SALL essentially measures how much Bitcoin has been bought at higher prices than the current level. When this indicator rises, it means more investors, especially long-term holders, are starting to incur losses. History shows this is one of the earliest signals of a bear market phase, where fear influences not only short-term traders but also patient “HODLers.”

Lessons from Past Bear Cycles

To better understand the significance of this fluctuation, we need to look back at history. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, during major downturns, the SALL index rose sharply. Interestingly, these increases did not occur at the market bottom but before it.

The true bottom only forms after the loss supply expands significantly—that’s when the last investors finally capitulate. Everyone holding Bitcoin at that point is in loss, and only then, with widespread despair, do real buying opportunities emerge.

Capitulation Not Yet, but the Shift Is Critical

Currently, although the loss supply remains well below historical capitulation levels (the phase of complete despair), the trend itself is what truly matters. The change in direction—from decreasing to increasing—is a warning that the market may be on the verge of a new phase. Not all upward trends lead to a peak, and not all indicator shifts necessarily mean the market is about to collapse—but they are important signals that investors should not ignore.

From the perspective of blockchain analysis experts, proactive action is wise.