The increasing deficits: The US economy at a dangerous turning point

The increasingly clear economic downturn signs are prompting strong reactions from markets. Stocks and cryptocurrencies have plummeted in recent weeks, but the underlying cause is not isolated events; rather, economic figures are telling a different story.

When you look at data from the U.S., the picture of an economy in decline becomes evident. These are not vague predictions but concrete indicators and data that investors and markets are pricing in right now.

Concerning Signs in the Labor Market

The first and most obvious decline appears in the labor market. According to the latest data, over 100,000 jobs were cut in just one month at the beginning of 2025. This is the highest number since the U.S. economy hit bottom in 2009 during the global financial crisis.

At the same time, JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data shows that new job openings are at their lowest level since 2023. This reflects a worrying reality: companies are no longer hiring but are instead tightening labor costs. When companies start cutting jobs instead of hiring, it’s a clear sign that business conditions are weakening.

Chain Reaction from Spending and Credit Markets

The link between job cuts and consumer spending is clear and inevitable. When workers lose their jobs or fear losing them, they cut back on spending. This creates an economic spiral: reduced consumer demand leads to decreased production, which further pressures employment cuts.

Meanwhile, the technology credit market is under significant pressure. A considerable portion of loans and bonds in the tech sector are struggling to find new capital and maintain stable prices. This indicates that the signs of decline are not limited to the labor market but are spreading across all sectors of the economy.

Signals from the Financial Markets

These economic signs are not unknown to the market. On the contrary, they are being priced in through investor actions. The decline in stocks and cryptocurrencies is a natural market reaction to worsening economic signals. The market is not waiting for conditions to deteriorate further; instead, it is proactively adjusting forecasts and asset valuations.