Why We Might See Bitcoin in the 4-0s

Historically, during bear markets, Bitcoin has always fallen below #我在Gate广场过新年 at least touching the miner survival line (.
In the 2018 bear market bottom: Bitcoin's price dropped to around $3,200 by the end of that year. At that time, the estimated average mining cost across the network was between $4,000 and $5,000. This means the market indeed broke through most miners' survival threshold at the bottom, leading to the closure of many small and medium-sized mining farms, and the hash rate )Hashrate( experienced a rare continuous decline.
In March 2020 "312" event: the price instantly halved to below $4,000. At that time, the price was far below the profitability break-even point of mainstream mining machines like the S17 ), causing a short-term shutdown wave of the entire network's hash power.
In 2022 FTX crisis: Bitcoin dropped to around $16,000. Market research at that time showed that even the more efficient miners' total costs (including financial leverage) were around $18,000-$20,000.

The Bitcoin system ensures its survival through "difficulty adjustment." If the price does not fall below production costs, inefficient capacity will not exit, and network difficulty will not decrease.
Clearing process: Price drops -> falls below average cost -> inefficient miners shut down -> total network hash rate decreases -> difficulty adjusts downward -> the remaining efficient miners' costs decrease.
Currently, the most dominant efficient machine group (S21 series) has shutdown prices at a $0.04 electricity rate, concentrated between $38,000 and $41,000.