#我在Gate广场过新年 Is this currently a critical inflection point or just a short-term rebound?

1. Optimistic Perspective
10x Research points out that cryptocurrencies and related stocks are entering a critical inflection point, with inflation falling faster than expected. Analysts believe Bitcoin once surged to $70,000, indicating a positive market response to rate cut expectations.

2. Cautious Perspective
Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar states that holdings in software, technology stocks, cryptocurrencies, and precious metals are all heavy, and investors are adjusting their positions. Concerns about crypto miners are intensifying.
Analysts note that Bitcoin basis has fallen back to a neutral zone, and demand for derivatives longs is weakening.

3. Long-term Perspective
Prediction platform Polymarket shows an 82% chance that Bitcoin will fall below $65,000 this year, with the probability of dropping below $55,000 rising to about 60%.