📌 2026-02-16 BTC Technical Analysis + Strategy (As of 12:50)

Current Price: Approximately $68,900 (-1.3%)
Trend: Very weak in the short term, dominated by a bearish mid-term, macro and capital markets leaning bearish


📉 Key Technical Levels (Core)

- Resistance Levels (Sellers)
- First Resistance: $69,500–$70,000 (Intraday dense zone + psychological barrier)
- Second Resistance: $71,000–$71,500 (Strong resistance + trendline)
- Mid-term Strong Resistance: $72,500 (Fibonacci 61.8% + 50-day moving average)
- Support Levels (Buyers)
- First Support: $68,000 (Intraday low)
- Strong Support: $67,000 (Key support + demand zone)
- Lifeline: $65,000 (Weekly strong support, a break below accelerates bearishness)
- Ultimate Support: $60,000 (200-week moving average + options dense zone)


📊 Indicator Signals (Bearish)

- Moving Averages: Price below 5/20/50-day MA, bearish alignment
- MACD (4H/Daily): Bearish crossover below zero line, green bars expanding → Strong downward momentum
- RSI (4H): 30–35, approaching oversold but not stopping decline → Weak rebound
- KDJ: Low-level stagnation, oversold but no bullish reversal
- Bollinger Bands: Price running along the lower band → Weak volatility oscillation


🧠 Capital and Structure (Bearish)

- Liquidations: $331 million liquidated across the entire network in 24h, BTC long positions liquidated at $210 million (75%+ longs) → Deleveraging not finished
- ETF/Capital: Spot ETF continues to outflow, net capital outflow → Insufficient buying pressure
- On-chain: HODLers distributing, large holders reducing positions → Long-term capital leaving
- Liquidity: Low during the Lunar New Year holiday, prone to quick rebounds and sharp drops, high slippage


🎯 Today's Strategy (Cautious, Can be Executed Directly)

1️⃣ Short-term (Intraday/4H)

- Short (Priority)
- Entry: Short on rebound in the $69,500–$70,000 zone
- Stop-loss: $71,000 (Exit short if broken)
- Targets: $68,000 → $67,000 → $65,000
- Long (Light position only)
- Entry: $67,000 stabilizes + volume increases, try a small long position
- Stop-loss: $66,500
- Targets: $68,500 → $69,500 (Fast in and out)

2️⃣ Mid-term (1–3 days)

- If breaks below $65,000 → Accelerate bearish view, look toward $60,000
- Confirmation signal: Volume breakout above $71,500 and stabilization before considering trend reversal

3️⃣ Risk Management (Must Watch)

- Position size: Short-term positions ≤10%, mid-term positions ≤5%
- Stop-loss: Always set, no holding through stop-loss, no adding to losing positions
- Coordination: Keep a close eye on BTC, ETH/SOL to follow in sync


⚠ Risk Reminder

- Macro: Fed rate hike expectations delayed, US dollar strengthening, US Treasury yields rising suppresses crypto
- Holiday: Low liquidity, high volatility amplification, high slippage risk
- Liquidation: High leverage risk, strict position control required