Wheat Markets Face Monday Morning Decline Across All Trading Centers

The start of the trading week brought renewed weakness to wheat futures, as major commodity markets opened Monday morning with notable losses across multiple contracts. The broader complex showed vulnerability as strengthening in the dollar index—which gained $0.893—applied fresh downside pressure on grain values.

Price Movements Signal Weakness in Key Wheat Contracts

Chicago SRW (Soft Red Winter) wheat futures experienced the steepest declines, dropping 3 to 4¼ cents on Monday morning, though the March contract maintained gains of 8½ cents for the week. Meanwhile, open interest in Chicago contracts fell by 8,280 positions. In Kansas City, HRW (Hard Red Winter) futures also retreated 2 to 3 cents at the close, with March holding a 4 cent weekly gain despite Monday morning’s pressure. Open interest here slipped by 1,333 contracts. Minneapolis spring wheat rounded out the weakness, closing with 3 to 4 cent losses, though March futures managed a 3¼ cent weekly advance. These moves suggest profit-taking following the week’s earlier strength.

Trader Positioning Shows Managed Money Adjustment

Commitment of Traders data revealed that managed money traders covered shorts in Chicago wheat futures and options, reducing their net short position by 15,957 contracts to 94,743 contracts as of January 27. In Kansas City wheat, speculative traders trimmed 2,689 contracts from their net short position, leaving them with 10,329 contracts. These adjustments indicate a rotation in the market structure heading into Monday morning’s session.

Export Demand Remains Solid Despite Price Pressures

On a more constructive note, accumulated wheat export sale commitments reached 21.595 MMT—running 18% ahead of the same week last year and representing 88% of USDA’s seasonal forecast, in line with the 89% average pace. Taiwan’s purchasing activity late last week underscored this strength, with the country acquiring 106,350 MT of wheat in a US tender. This demand backdrop provides some floor beneath prices even as Monday morning sees renewed selling pressure.

Current Contract Prices (Monday Morning):

• Mar 26 CBOT Wheat: $5.38 (down 3½ cents, currently -4¼ cents)
• May 26 CBOT Wheat: $5.46 (down 4¼ cents, currently -4¼ cents)
• Mar 26 KCBT Wheat: $5.44¾ (down 2¼ cents, currently -4¼ cents)
• May 26 KCBT Wheat: $5.55 (down 2¾ cents, currently -4½ cents)
• Mar 26 MIAX Wheat: $5.78¼ (down 3¼ cents, currently -4¾ cents)
• May 26 MIAX Wheat: $5.92½ (down 3 cents, currently -5 cents)

The morning weakness reflects typical Monday consolidation patterns, with traders reassessing positions after the prior week’s gains. Export demand and favorable sales pace suggest any significant dips could attract fresh buying interest as the week progresses.