After Bitcoin Surpasses $68,000: Is it the Restart of a Bull Market or the Final Frenzy?

"On February 15, Bitcoin once again surged past the $68,000 mark, reaching a new high since November 2024.
But unlike previous times, the market did not exhibit 'FOMO' sentiment; instead, cautious optimism is prevailing.
Is this a comeback of the bull market, or are major players诱多? This article will analyze deeply from the perspectives of capital, policy, and technology."

I. The Three Core Drivers of This Round of Rally
1. Increasing Expectations of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts

January CPI data unexpectedly fell to 2.9%, with the market betting on a 75% chance of rate cuts in June
The US dollar index fell below 103, risk assets rebounded across the board, Bitcoin's correlation with US stocks reached 0.82
2. Continuous Inflow of Institutional Funds

BlackRock's IBIT ETF saw a net inflow of over $500 million in a single day, with total holdings surpassing $30 billion
Grayscale's GBTC premium turned positive to 3%, after arbitrage funds exited, shifting to long-term holdings
MicroStrategy purchased an additional 12,000 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 264,000 BTC
3. Halving Cycle Effects Become Evident

Historical data shows that days 450-500 after halving are the main upward phase (currently 310 days since the April 2024 halving)
Mining pressure eases: daily net outflow decreased from 1,200 BTC in Q3 2024 to 400 BTC#Gate广场发帖领五万美金红包