Soybean Quotes Enter New Month Under Pressure

Soybean futures extended weakness into early February, with the front-month contracts declining 6 to 7 cents to begin trading in the new month. The market’s bearish momentum carried forward from the prior week when contracts finished 8 to 10 cents lower, with March futures retreating 3½ cents for the week. This sustained pressure reflects a confluence of factors affecting pricing across the soybean complex—from fund positioning changes to shifting export dynamics and evolving crop conditions globally.

Price Declines Span the Soybean Complex

The weakness was not confined to soybeans alone. The cmdtyView national average cash bean price fell 7½ cents to $9.98½, while soymeal futures retreated $2.40 to $3.00, with March contracts down $6.30 on the week. Soy oil futures completed Friday at 52 points lower, bringing weekly losses to 48 points in the March contract. Open interest activity on Friday showed total trading rose 1,392 contracts, though March contracts saw liquidation of 3,705 contracts while May absorbed buying pressure with 3,697 contracts added.

Fund Activity Signals Shifting Sentiment in New Month Quotes

According to CFTC Commitment of Traders data as of January 27, speculative funds demonstrated buying interest despite the weakness by adding 7,261 contracts to their net long soybean futures and options position. This activity brought their aggregate net long position to 17,321 contracts, suggesting some participants viewed the new month weakness as a buying opportunity. The data illustrates how trader positioning continues evolving as the complex enters fresh monthly trading cycles.

Export Sales Trail Seasonal Benchmarks

USDA export sales data released Thursday revealed that soybean export commitments reached 33.85 million metric tons as of January 22, placing current sales 20% below the equivalent period last year. This represents 79% of USDA’s official export estimate for the season, trailing the historical 87% average sales pace typically observed at this juncture. The gap between current pace and seasonal norms raises questions about international demand dynamics. Traders anticipate additional guidance later in the week when USDA releases crush data, with market expectations pointing to 230.4 million bushels of soybeans crushed during December.

South American Crop Conditions Offer Mixed Signals

The Argentina soybean crop situation remained intermediate, with Buenos Aires Grains Exchange data showing 47% of plantings in good/excellent condition as of late January. While this represents a 6 percentage-point decline from year-ago levels, it marked significant improvement from the 24% rating reported in the same week the previous year, suggesting recovery from earlier stress. Brazil’s soybean harvest progressed slowly, with AgRural reporting only 10% harvested as of Thursday, maintaining typical seasonal timing for this phase of the growing cycle.

New Month Contract Settlement and Market Direction

March 26 soybeans closed Friday at $10.64¼, down 8 cents, and were currently trading 6¼ cents lower. Nearby cash beans finished at $9.98½, declining 7½ cents. May 26 contracts closed at $10.77, retreating 8¾ cents, currently down 6¼ cents. July 26 soybeans closed at $10.90½, falling 9¼ cents, with current declines of 6¼ cents. These new month quotes reflect the complex interplay between technical selling pressure, fund rotation, and fundamental uncertainty surrounding export pace versus seasonal expectations. Market participants will remain focused on upcoming USDA crush and export data as key catalysts for directional momentum in the weeks ahead.