On February 16, renowned analyst Willy Woo stated that the 12-year valuation trend of Bitcoin relative to gold has recently been broken. BTC's relative valuation should have been higher, but in reality, it hasn't been achieved, mainly due to market awareness of the risks posed by quantum computing, which has led to early pricing of potential issues.

In the future, Bitcoin is likely to be patched with quantum-resistant signatures, but this cannot solve the problem of approximately 4 million "lost" BTC (early lost private keys that could be cracked by quantum computers) re-entering circulation. Willy Woo estimates there is a 75% chance that these lost bitcoins will not be frozen through protocol hard forks, so the market needs to account for the selling pressure of 4 million coins in advance.

Since MicroStrategy began accumulating BTC in 2020, the total enterprise and ETF holdings amount to only 2.8 million BTC. The 4 million lost tokens are equivalent to 8 years of enterprise accumulation, which could cause serious supply dilution. Before "Q-Day" (the day quantum computing threats are realized, expected in 5-15 years), BTC prices will continue to be affected by this looming cloud. #我在Gate广场过新年