Morgan Stanley Issues Equal-Weight Rating on CRCL as Institutional Interest Accelerates

On February 2, 2026, Morgan Stanley launched coverage of Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) with an Equal-Weight rating, signaling a cautious but measured outlook for the cryptocurrency-focused fintech company. The analyst coverage marks an important validation of CRCL’s significance in the institutional investment landscape, despite the neutral stance on near-term performance.

Analyst Valuation Points to Substantial Upside for CRCL

The projection data paints an intriguing picture for CRCL investors. As of January 13, 2026, the consensus price target among analysts stands at $141.87 per share, representing a 140.65% appreciation potential from the then-current price of $58.95. The forecasts among different analysts vary considerably, ranging from a conservative $60.60 to an optimistic $294.00, reflecting divided opinions on CRCL’s trajectory.

The company’s projected non-GAAP earnings per share sits at 1.02, providing a fundamental metric for valuation discussions. This spread in price targets—with the bullish case more than 4.8x higher than the base case—suggests significant uncertainty about how markets will ultimately price CRCL’s growth prospects.

Institutional Investors Show Mixed Conviction on CRCL Holdings

The fund sentiment surrounding CRCL reveals a nuanced picture of institutional positioning. Nearly 500 funds and institutions now maintain stakes in CRCL, up 115 owners or 30.42% quarter-over-quarter—indicating accelerating institutional interest in the stock. However, the average portfolio allocation to CRCL among all fund holders stands relatively modest at 0.89%, though this has grown 11.85% in the past three months.

Total shares held by institutional investors increased by 16.52% to reach 97.214 million shares over the same period. The put/call ratio of 0.65 suggests bullish market sentiment, with investors favoring call options over protective puts—a signal of optimism beneath the surface.

Major Shareholders Adjust CRCL Positions Amid Market Reassessment

A closer examination of large stakeholders reveals divergent strategies regarding CRCL. General Catalyst Group Management, the largest identified institutional holder with 19.001 million shares (8.78% ownership), has reduced its position by 5.89%, trimming holdings from 20.121 million shares. The firm simultaneously cut its portfolio weighting in CRCL by 2.33%.

Similarly, IDG China Capital Fund III Associates decreased its stake from 11.676 million to 11.027 million shares (a 5.89% reduction), representing 5.09% current ownership, while lowering its portfolio allocation by 3.17%. Marshall Wace LLP took a more aggressive step, cutting CRCL from 8.534 million shares to 8.060 million (also a 5.89% decline) and slashing its portfolio weighting by 37.82%.

Not all large holders retreated, however. Susquehanna International Group expanded its position substantially, growing from 690K shares to 3.148 million shares—a 78.08% increase. The firm boosted its CRCL portfolio allocation by 174.48%, signaling renewed conviction in the stock. ARK Investment Management modestly increased holdings from 2.924 million to 2.967 million shares (up 1.43%), though it paradoxically decreased its overall portfolio weight by 39.76%, reflecting broader portfolio rebalancing rather than CRCL conviction.

The divergence in institutional behavior around CRCL—with some major investors trimming exposure while others aggressively accumulate—reflects the ongoing market reassessment of the company’s value proposition and competitive positioning in the digital finance space.