#BitcoinPlungeNearsHistoricLows 1. The Death of the "Halving Cycle"?

Historically, the year after a halving (2025) was supposed to be the "parabolic year," and the following year (2026) the "bear year." However, the cycle was front-run by the ETF approvals in 2024.
The Shift: Bitcoin is no longer a niche asset governed by mining rewards alone; it’s a macro-asset tied to the Fed's dot plot and global liquidity (M2).
Institutional Floor: While retail is fearful, institutions like MicroStrategy are still buying (recently adding 2,486 BTC at ~$67,710).
2. The Production Cost Barrier
You mentioned the production cost is around $77,000. Currently, Bitcoin is trading below the average mining cost for many.
The Miner’s Dilemma: When price stays below cost for too long, inefficient miners shut down, hashrate drops, and difficulty resets.
Historical Context: Historically, Bitcoin rarely stays below the production cost for more than a few months. This often marks the "generational bottom."My Prediction for End of 2026: Range 3 ($80,000–$120,000)
I lean toward a Mild Recovery for a few reasons:
Monetary Policy: The Fed is expected to be in an easing or "neutral" phase by late 2026. This typically provides the "oxygen" for a recovery.
Market Maturation: We are likely moving away from 80% crashes and 1000% gains toward a "Stock Market-plus" volatility profile.
The $100k Magnet: Psychologically, $100,000 is the new "ground zero." Expect the price to oscillate around this number as it becomes the fair value for a "digital gold" asset class.
The Verdict: The "Four-Year Cycle" isn't dead, but it's "stretching." 2026 won't be a deep bear market like 2018 or 2022 because the institutional "sticky" capital is too high, but the easy 2x–5x gains are likely over for this phase.