ArcelorMittal's Valuation Target Surges 11.85% on Wall Street Optimism

Analysts have significantly raised their confidence in ArcelorMittal (ENXTAM:MT), pushing the average one-year price target to €43.32 per share—an 11.85% jump from the previous estimate of €38.73 set in mid-January. This bullish revision reflects shifting market sentiment around the steel giant, though the average target still sits 9.36% below the latest closing price of €47.79.

The new consensus represents an average of projections ranging from a cautious €28.28 to an optimistic €57.75 per share, signaling divergent views within the analyst community about the company’s near-term trajectory.

Institutional Investor Positioning Tells a Complex Story

The fund sentiment indicator presents a nuanced picture of institutional attitudes toward MT. While analyst price targets are climbing, the number of institutional investors holding positions in ArcelorMittal has actually contracted. The count of funds and institutions reporting stakes dropped to 220 from 267 in the prior quarter—a 17.60% decline in ownership participation.

Despite fewer players in the game, those still holding MT have increased their average portfolio weight to 0.21%, up 10.58% from previous levels. However, this modest increase masks a broader trend: total institutional shareholdings decreased by 14.94% over the three-month period, settling at 53.611 million shares.

Major Fund Managers Trim Holdings Despite Bullish Signals

The disconnect between rising price targets and declining institutional ownership becomes clearer when examining individual fund behavior. Several major players have actually reduced their ArcelorMittal stakes recently.

Vanguard’s Total International Stock Index Fund holds 6.146 million shares (0.81% ownership) but cut its position by 11.78% from the previous quarter, representing 724,000 shares of reduced exposure. The fund simultaneously decreased its MT portfolio allocation by 12.33%.

Causeway’s International Value Fund maintains a 5.375 million share stake (0.71% ownership), yet trimmed holdings by 3.56% quarter-over-quarter. More dramatically, the fund slashed its relative portfolio commitment to MT by 72.36%, suggesting a strategic shift away from the steel sector.

Vanguard’s Developed Markets Index Fund (Admiral Shares tier) holds 3.816 million shares representing 0.50% ownership. The fund sold 441,000 shares during the quarter, a 11.55% reduction, and cut portfolio allocation to MT by 12.99%.

Bridge Builder International Equity Fund manages a smaller 3.549 million share position (0.47% ownership) with a minimal 0.76% quarterly decline—essentially flat positioning. Interestingly, this fund increased its relative MT allocation by 0.08%.

iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF bucked the broader selling trend, adding to its ArcelorMittal stake. The fund now holds 3.092 million shares (0.41% ownership), up 49,000 shares or 1.58% from last quarter, and increased its portfolio weight by 1.24%.

What This Divergence Means

The 11.85% upward revision in analyst price targets conflicts with institutional selling, creating an interesting market dynamic. Most major fund managers are reducing exposure even as Wall Street grows more constructive on the company’s prospects. Only iShares among the major holders is adding to positions, while Vanguard funds and Causeway are substantially paring back.

This pattern may reflect differing time horizons between analysts projecting long-term fair value and active fund managers rebalancing based on current valuations and sector rotation strategies. The mixed signals suggest caution may be warranted until actual business fundamentals align with analyst optimism.