The Patience Game: Why Archer Aviation Deserves Your Long-Term Watch

Warren Buffett’s most celebrated insight about investing emphasizes the virtue of patience: “The stock market is a device to transfer money from the impatient to the patient.” This wisdom feels particularly relevant when examining Archer Aviation, an electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft manufacturer that has tested investor patience since going public in 2021. The company’s stock has declined approximately 19% from its IPO price, yet its long-term trajectory may reward those with conviction in emerging technologies and patient capital.

Buffett’s Wisdom Meets Aviation Innovation

The core challenge for any long-term investor is resisting the urge to react to short-term volatility. Markets reward patience, but only when that patience is grounded in a genuine long-term thesis. For Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR), the case requires both patience and perspective. The stock currently trades around $8.20, down from its $10 IPO entry point in 2021, reflecting market skepticism about a company that has yet to generate meaningful revenue.

This underperformance, however, reflects an industry reality rather than company failure. The eVTOL sector represents an entirely new mobility category—air taxis designed for urban transportation are not yet commercially operational anywhere in the world. Archer is essentially pioneering an industry that doesn’t yet exist at scale, which naturally involves substantial uncertainty and capital investment requirements.

The company’s financial position underscores this reality: currently operating at a net loss with minimal revenue. Yet Archer maintains approximately $2 billion in cash and liquidity following a recent $650 million capital raise. This financial runway provides the resources necessary to navigate the path toward commercial operations without the desperation that might force compromised decisions.

From Concept to Commerce: Archer’s Journey in 2026

What distinguishes Archer from other emerging eVTOL competitors is its position as a first mover with credible regulatory pathways. The company is expected to begin generating revenue potentially in the first quarter of 2026, with analysts projecting approximately $32 million in full-year 2026 revenue. These figures may appear modest, but they represent the critical transition from pure R&D phase to revenue-generating operations.

The company’s Midnight aircraft passed flight tests in Abu Dhabi during late 2025, positioning Archer as a near-term beneficiary of regulatory momentum in international markets. The UAE has indicated its intention to approve air taxi commercial operations by the third quarter of 2026, and Archer holds an exclusive agreement to provide those operations. Such certainty in commercial deployment—backed by a sovereign government commitment—provides a substantial competitive moat.

Beyond the Middle East, Archer recently secured a preferred partner agreement with Serbia, enabling the purchase of up to 25 Midnight air taxis. This international expansion validates both the aircraft design and Archer’s ability to execute commercial partnerships.

Multiple Catalysts Building Momentum

Domestically, the Trump Administration’s pilot program for fast-tracking advanced air mobility deployment has created regulatory clarity and accelerated timelines. Archer has already achieved key Federal Aviation Administration approvals and conducted multiple test flights, though observers expect full U.S. commercial operations approval may not arrive until 2028. This timeline aligns with the Los Angeles Olympics, an event that will serve as a high-visibility showcase for the technology. Notably, Archer has acquired the Hawthorne Airport in Los Angeles for $126 million, establishing an operational hub that will play an integral role during the 2028 Games.

Analyst sentiment has shifted accordingly, with consensus price targets hovering around $13 per share—suggesting a potential 56% return over the next 12 months. However, this projection assumes successful execution and near-term commercialization catalysts.

The Long View on Speculative Opportunity

Archer Aviation remains a speculative investment by definition. An emerging company in an industry with minimal proven commercial revenue justifies caution and appropriately sized positions within a diversified portfolio. The timeline for profitability remains uncertain, and regulatory or technical obstacles could delay commercialization.

Yet for investors who embrace Buffett’s patience philosophy—who understand that transformative technologies require time to move from concept to scale—the risk-reward profile becomes compelling. The company possesses financial resources, regulatory progress, international partnerships, and first-mover positioning in an industry that could reshape urban transportation. The next few years will prove decisive: 2026 may mark the inflection point from pre-revenue pioneer to commercial operator.

Those who maintain conviction through near-term disappointments may find that patience, as Buffett suggested, ultimately transfers wealth from the impatient skeptics to the long-term believers.