2026 * 2 * 19

Main Path
Range Oscillation → Upper Boundary Resistance → Rebound Test

ETH Current Structure (15m + 1H)

Price rebounded from 1920
Entering a 1950 — 2000 range oscillation

Closest rebound near 1985
Then falls back to around 1960

Belongs to:
Weak correction oscillation after decline
Not a trend reversal.

Technical Structural Features

BOLL
15m:
Middle band flat
Upper and lower bands converging
Price repeatedly crossing the middle band
Typical oscillation structure

1H:
Middle band horizontal
Upper band continuously pressing down
Overall still a weak consolidation zone

MACD
15m: Momentum gradually diminishing
Rebound bars shortening

1H: Repeatedly near zero line
Trend direction unclear
But no bullish divergence formed

Funds lack trend momentum

RSI
15m: Neutral to weak
No overbought
Indicates no strong trend

1H: Maintains oscillation zone
No bullish divergence observed

Overall Rhythm Judgment

Bearish structure oscillating → Waiting for direction choice

Secondary Path

Oscillation upper boundary failure → Re-explore lower boundary

If 1985 — 2000 remains under pressure:

Possible re-test
1940 → 1920

Currently more like:
Repeated shakeout within the range

Support Levels

1955 (short-term support)
1940 (range lower boundary)
1920 (breakdown acceleration point)

Resistance Levels

1985 (current resistance)
2000 (strong resistance)
2030 (trend reversal confirmation)

Alternative Path

Strong recovery above 2000 → Structural repair

If volume stabilizes above 2000:

Market may enter
2000 — 2050 repair phase

Otherwise, still default to oscillation with a bearish bias.

Trading Suggestions
✅ Main rhythm (buy low, sell high)

Focus on range trading

Shorting near 1980 — 2000

Buying small dips near 1940 for short-term longs

Stop-loss controlled within a small range.

⚠️ Avoid

Avoid chasing rallies

Avoid panic selling

Current is not a trending market

Rhythm Summary

Market is in:
1H no-trend oscillation phase

Core Logic:
👉 Oscillation thinking > trend thinking

Conclusion

ETH is currently not in a directional trend.

There are only two true points to choose a direction:

Break above 2000 → Turn strong

Break below 1920 → Accelerate downward