Is Bitcoin Overpricing US Recession Risk? Analyst Sees Major Upside If Downturn Doesn't Materialize

According to André Dragosch, Head of Research for Europe at Bitwise, Bitcoin’s recent downturn may reflect broader macroeconomic anxieties rather than crypto-specific vulnerabilities. In a recent analysis, Dragosch argued that the world’s largest digital asset appears to be heavily discounting the probability of a severe US recession. Should economic conditions prove more resilient than currently priced, he contends, Bitcoin could be positioned for a substantial rally.

Bitcoin as a Macro-Sensitive Asset

Dragosch characterized Bitcoin as fundamentally a macroeconomic-sensitive asset, with approximately 90% of its historical performance attributable to broad economic forces. These drivers include growth expectations, global liquidity availability, and monetary policy trajectories. However, he acknowledged that periods exist when Bitcoin temporarily decouples from these traditional macro factors, suggesting the market may currently be experiencing one such cyclical shift.

The recent selling pressure, according to Dragosch’s assessment, extends beyond standard macroeconomic concerns. Some market participants have attributed underperformance to what analysts refer to as a “quantum discount”—the notion that long-term holders are offloading positions while speculators fear the eventual emergence of quantum-resistant cryptographic standards.

The Quantum Discount Conundrum

One indication of this quantum-related discount can be observed in Bitcoin’s underperformance relative to Bitcoin Cash (BCH), which some view as having a more transparent near-term pathway toward quantum resilience. Dragosch estimates that markets may currently be pricing in approximately a 25% probability of quantum-related risk, whereas a more grounded assessment would suggest closer to 5%, given that any meaningful “Q-Day” scenario likely remains decades away.

Why Current Recession Pricing May Be Excessive

More recently, Dragosch noted that Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions has intensified. This heightened correlation has coincided with softness in technology equities, contributing additional downward pressure on the cryptocurrency.

In his view, the latest correction has generated one of the most substantial macro mispricings in Bitcoin’s trading history. He pointed to significant disparities between forward-looking economic indicators and Bitcoin’s implied growth pricing—a gap that even exceeded the divergence observed during the COVID-19 recession of 2020. In practical terms, current Bitcoin valuation appears to embed expectations of a deep US recession. Were such a downturn to fail to materialize, Dragosch argues, the resulting setup would represent one of Bitcoin’s most asymmetric risk-reward opportunities to date.

Economic Signals Suggest Slower Recession Risk Than Priced

Importantly, macroeconomic signals are not uniformly negative. Industrial commodity markets have begun showing renewed momentum, while US ISM manufacturing data has returned to expansion territory. Leading indicators—including Germany’s Ifo business confidence index and Taiwanese semiconductor export trends—are trending upward. Additionally, global rate-cutting cycles have historically preceded stabilization in forward growth expectations.

Collectively, these indicators suggest that global growth prospects may not be deteriorating as sharply as current pricing implies. Such an environment typically supports risk assets like Bitcoin while reducing relative appetite for defensive assets like gold. Dragosch highlighted that the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio currently sits near historically dislocated levels, which he views as another potential signal of Bitcoin undervaluation.

As of late February 2026, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $65,340, representing roughly a 48% decline from its all-time high of $126,080 reached in October. The divergence between Bitcoin’s current valuation and forward-looking economic fundamentals may ultimately determine whether this correction represents a genuine warning or a rare mispricing opportunity.