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The Bitcoin derivatives market pressure index has reached a high bearish level.
With US-Iran tensions, $1.8 billion worth of sales occurred in one hour.
While the index and price are simultaneously hitting bottom levels, stress signals are intensifying.
The Crypto Market Analysis's Bitcoin Derivatives Market Pressure Index shows both the directional intensity of prices and derivatives positions together. Data from January 30 to February 28 reveal a persistent weakening in the index and indicate that a critical threshold has been reached as of this morning. The index has been above the neutral line since late January but started to decline rapidly along with the price at the beginning of February. Although a short-term recovery was observed between February 11-13, this upward movement was not sustained. From mid-month onward, while prices fluctuated, the pressure index consistently moved downward. On February 28, both the price and the pressure index reached the high bearish pressure zone at the bottom of the chart. This level has not been seen since previous price declines, and the fact that both the price and the index are testing bottom levels simultaneously increases the significance of the current situation.
Early in the day, the derivative data clarified the reason for the deterioration in the index. With the spread of US allegations of attacks on Iran to global markets, an aggressive sale of $1.8 billion occurred in just one hour. This amount is not considered a typical trading volume. This single-hour sale results from large-scale investment management systems simultaneously reducing risk. In other words, this wave of selling in the market indicates that institutional and automated systems are significantly reducing risk, rather than individual small investors' trades. The short histogram bars on the far right of the chart visually represent this movement and, unusually, point to a rapid increase in selling pressure following a specific geopolitical development.
The high bearish pressure line on the chart serves as an indicator of the historical pessimism in the derivatives markets. When the index approached this level in February, either the price hit a bottom or the current decline accelerated. For example, on February 5-6, the price fell to around $60,000, and the index also bottomed out, followed by a rapid recovery. The price then rose to $70,000, and the pressure index reached 32 points before declining again. How the current pressure will resolve depends on the geopolitical developments and new factors such as the March 1 Clarity Act process.
Since the decline in early February, Bitcoin continues to trade at its lowest levels. In the high bearish zones of the derivatives pressure index, an aggressive sale of $1.8 billion occurred in the morning. These three factors indicate that, at the end of February and during a week filled with macroeconomic uncertainties, the markets are under significant stress.