Will international war cause BTC to drop to 38,000?

Historical patterns and recent real-world cases show a consistent trend:

Short-term: Risk assets are sold off across the board, and BTC often follows the stock market and margin liquidations downward. On the day/week U.S.-Russia conflict broke out in 2022, BTC plunged 10–15% at once; similar 7–10% flash crashes occurred during Iran-related conflicts in 2025–2026.

Medium-term (weeks to months): Two possible paths
① If the war escalates rapidly, oil prices surge, inflation expectations spiral out of control, and liquidity tightens → BTC may continue to decline along with risk assets, with declines of 30–60% not uncommon (for example, the 2022 bear market saw BTC drop from over $60,000 to $16,000).
② If the war is seen as “locally controllable,” or if it stimulates safe-haven demand (sanctions, capital controls, currency devaluation expectations) → BTC may rebound, even increase by 30–50% or more. One month after the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in 2022, BTC rose about 37%, and early conflicts often show “war premiums.”

To drop to 38k, several conditions need to occur simultaneously:

1. The war is very large-scale (multiple countries directly involved, serious disruptions to supply chains/energy)

2. The Federal Reserve/global central banks are forced to tighten significantly to combat hyperinflation

3. Stock markets and risk assets experience a crash similar to 2022

4. Crypto leverage has not been rapidly unwound (currently, contract holdings and liquidation data have not reached extreme panic levels)

But if it’s just a “localized hot war” (for example, the current Middle East conflict expands but doesn’t involve Taiwan Strait/Europe on a full scale), history shows BTC tends to have a short-term panic followed by a V-shaped or W-shaped rebound, rather than a one-way drop to 38,000.

In one sentence: International war is likely to hit BTC hard first (possibly very harshly), but whether it truly drops long-term to 38k depends on how big the war gets, how long it lasts, and how global liquidity reacts. Currently, the probability of dropping below 50k is higher than directly falling to 38k.

What level of war risk do you think we are at now? We can discuss specific scenarios further.

#美国以色列突袭伊朗BTC短线跳水