🚨 THE REAL STORY ISN’T IRAN OR THE U.S. — IT’S OIL

Headlines are noise.
Oil supply is the signal.
If the Strait of Hormuz faces disruption, it’s not regional — it’s global.
~20% of the world’s oil flows through that narrow passage daily.
And there are almost no real bypass options.
If it’s disrupted: → Asia faces immediate supply shocks
→ Gulf exporters lose key routes
→ Rerouting capacity is limited
Oil doesn’t grind higher.
It spikes.
$100 becomes realistic.
$130–$150 isn’t extreme in a worst case.
And oil shocks don’t stay in energy.
They hit inflation, yields, liquidity — and equities.
Crypto may look stable now.
But if oil gaps higher, risk assets won’t ignore it.
Watch oil first.
Everything else follows.