After $1.26 Trillion: Why Circle and Stripe Are Racing to Pay AI Agents' "Salaries"?

In early March 2026, two nearly simultaneous news stories appeared on the headlines of tech media. One reported that Circle and Stripe are competing to build stablecoin infrastructure for AI agents, and the other revealed that USDC processed $1.26 trillion in transactions in February, accounting for 70% of stablecoin activity. A headline from Yahoo Finance pointed out the connection: stablecoin companies are betting that AI agents will become the next trillion-dollar payment market.

This judgment is not unfounded. When OpenAI defines 2026 as the “Year of Personal Agents,” and NEAR’s founder predicts that AI agents will become the primary users of blockchain, a fundamental question emerges: when hundreds of millions of AI agents start trading autonomously on-chain, what do they use to pay? Traditional credit card networks cannot open accounts for machines, SWIFT cannot handle microtransactions, and banks do not serve algorithms. Stablecoins—once seen as a trading tool in the crypto market—are now becoming the only answer.

Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire predicted during earnings calls that stablecoins could become the “native currency for machine-to-machine commerce.” This redefines stablecoins from “cryptocurrency safe havens” to “the foundational currency of the digital economy.” Meanwhile, Stripe’s launch of the x402 payment feature on the Base chain allows developers to charge AI agents directly using USDC, with data showing over 98% of such transactions settle in stablecoins.

As AI agents start “spending money,” the “money” they choose is reshaping our understanding of currency. And this transformation is about much more than technological payment innovations.

1. AI Agents Have No Bank Accounts—What Do They Use to Pay?

Understanding why AI agents need stablecoins begins with a key question: when one AI agent purchases services from another, what do they use to pay?

Banks do not open accounts for AI, credit cards are not designed for algorithms, SWIFT cannot process microtransactions between machines. The traditional financial payment system was built to serve “people”—requiring identity verification, credit assessment, and manual authorization. For AI agents, these are either impossible or prohibitively expensive.

Animoca Brands chairman Yat Siu stated in late February: “The currency and transaction systems of agents will shift to the blockchain, replacing traditional credit cards, using stablecoins or tokenized assets. These assets will be verifiable, settle instantly, and be machine-readable, enabling seamless and efficient transactions between agents.”

This highlights the core issue. AI agents need more than just “money”; they require a programmable, real-time, low-friction payment interface. Stablecoins meet these needs perfectly: they operate on blockchain, enabling 24/7 instant transfers; they are programmable via smart contracts to automatically execute payment conditions; they maintain price stability, preventing asset devaluation during market fluctuations.

NEAR Protocol co-founder Illia Polosukhin described a broader vision in early March: “Blockchain users will be AI agents. AI will be at the front end, with blockchain as the backend. The goal is to hide the entire blockchain from your AI—our having a block explorer is actually a failure because we haven’t abstracted this technology.”

In his vision, future AI agents will directly interact with blockchain protocols, autonomously handling payments, managing assets, and coordinating services. Humans will only converse with AI—telling it “book me a flight” or “vote on that proposal”—while the agents handle everything on-chain. Humans won’t perceive the blockchain, but every transfer of value will occur on-chain, settled with stablecoins.

This is not science fiction. Stripe’s launch of x402 on the Base chain in February already allows developers to charge AI agents directly in USDC. According to Dune Analytics, by early March, the x402 protocol’s transaction volume on EVM chains was about $25.81 million, with over 98.6% settled in USDC. On Solana, USDC transactions accounted for 99.7%. In existing AI agent payment scenarios, stablecoins have almost become the default choice.

2. From $1.8 Trillion to Licensing—The Evolution Path of Stablecoins

If the needs of AI agents open up future possibilities for stablecoins, the evolution of market size and regulatory frameworks provides real-world support for this vision.

Consider recent data: according to Artemis and DeFiLlama, in February 2026, on-chain stablecoin transfers reached a record $1.8 trillion, a 22% increase from $1.47 trillion in December 2025. What does this mean? It’s roughly 1.8% of global GDP, surpassing the annual economic output of most countries. USDC performed particularly well, with monthly transfer volume around $558 billion, accounting for 31%, up from 24% a year earlier. Analysts attribute this shift to institutional participants favoring compliant USD infrastructure.

Circle’s own data confirms this trend. In 2025, Circle’s revenue reached $2.7 billion, up 64%. Bernstein recently rated Circle as a “market outperformer,” with a target price of $190, calling it a long-term winner. Circle uses USDC to settle $68 million across eight internal entities within 30 minutes, whereas traditional bank wire transfers take 1-3 days. CEO Jeremy Allaire revealed that about 90% of internal transfers are completed within a single day.

On the regulatory front, key signals emerged in March 2026 from the world’s three largest economies.

Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary Paul Chan announced at the end of February that Hong Kong has implemented a licensing regime for fiat-backed stablecoin issuers, with the first licenses expected in March. According to reports, HSBC, Standard Chartered, and local virtual asset platform OSL are among those in the pipeline. Although official responses are pending, an insider from a foreign bank said they are awaiting formal regulatory guidance. The 2025 “Stablecoin Regulations” require licensed issuers to hold high-quality reserves on a 1:1 basis and disclose information periodically. This means stablecoins are now entering Hong Kong’s regulated financial system.

In the U.S., the OCC has proposed a comprehensive regulatory framework for stablecoins under the GENIUS Act, providing federal legal clarity for compliant issuance and circulation. The EU’s MiCA regulation has already established a clear regulatory path. The simultaneous development of regulatory frameworks by these major economies marks a turning point—stablecoins are moving from the “gray area” to “regulated operation.”

The evolving competition between Circle and Stripe reflects this institutionalization. For years, Circle has been responsible for “producing money”—mapping real-world USD into USDC on-chain; Stripe has focused on “making money flow”—integrating stablecoins into real-world commerce via global payment networks. Their roles are complementary. But as stablecoins evolve from crypto tools into financial infrastructure, this balance is shifting. Circle is expanding upstream with products like Arc L1 blockchain, cross-chain transfer protocol CCTP, and Circle Payments Network, aiming to build a complete stablecoin payment network. Stripe is moving downstream, acquiring Bridge for $1.1 billion, developing the Tempo L1 settlement chain with Paradigm, and directly entering AI agent payment scenarios via x402.

When stablecoins become infrastructure, whoever controls the flow of funds can set the rules. The competition between Circle and Stripe exemplifies this logic.

3. Two Cycles, One Heart—How Stablecoins Connect Digital and Real Worlds

A fitting metaphor for the role of stablecoins in digital civilization is the “blood circulation system.” It has two cycles: an internal “endogenous” cycle within the digital world, and an “exogenous” cycle connecting virtual and real economies.

The internal cycle is taking shape. According to RWA.xyz, by March 2026, the on-chain value of tokenized real-world assets (excluding stablecoins) exceeded $25 billion, nearly four times the $6.4 billion a year earlier. Six major asset classes—U.S. Treasuries, commodities, private credit, institutional alternative funds, corporate bonds, and non-U.S. government debt—each surpass $1 billion on-chain. The issuance, trading, and settlement of these RWAs heavily rely on stablecoins as the value medium. Meanwhile, the rise of AI agents is creating new demands. Data from x402scan.com shows that by early March, the global x402 ecosystem had over 163 million transactions, with more than 435,000 buyer AI agents and over 90,000 seller AI agents. On the Moltbook AI social platform, the number of AI agents approached 2.85 million, nearly doubling from 1.2 million a week after launch. These AI agents provide services to each other and exchange value, with stablecoins being the most common settlement medium.

The exogenous cycle is equally clear. Stablecoins, through compliant issuance and redemption, bring fiat currency into the digital world. For example, Hong Kong’s upcoming stablecoin licensing regime requires issuers to hold reserves on a 1:1 basis, meaning each stablecoin is backed by one USD or HKD. When investors buy stablecoins with fiat, funds enter the digital realm; when they redeem stablecoins for fiat, funds flow back into the real economy. Stablecoins act as “converters,” enabling free movement of capital between virtual and real.

Tokenization of RWAs further strengthens this cycle. When a company tokenizes receivables or property assets and issues them on-chain, investors buy with stablecoins, and the company can convert the stablecoins into fiat for operations—completing a full flow from physical to digital and back. Major financial players like JPMorgan, BlackRock, and Franklin Templeton are building stablecoin-linked pipelines: JPM’s Kinexys platform handles billions in tokenized repo transactions; BlackRock’s tokenized funds on Ethereum; Franklin Templeton’s move of US government money market funds to Solana—all are constructing infrastructure connecting the virtual and real economies via stablecoins.

4. Visible Trends, Invisible Risks

Any technological revolution brings both opportunities and risks, and the evolution of stablecoins is no exception.

First, boundaries. In mainland China, the “42 Regulations” issued by eight authorities explicitly prohibit RWA tokenization and related services domestically, while overseas operations must follow registration requirements. This means all discussed stablecoin applications are within compliant foreign frameworks and do not constitute guidance or suggestions for domestic operations. For Chinese enterprises and investors, understanding global trends and technological logic is necessary, but cross-border activities must stay within regulatory red lines.

Challenges are also significant. Security risks are paramount—are stablecoin reserves transparent? Do smart contracts have vulnerabilities? Are cross-chain bridges secure? These directly impact fund safety. Compliance risks follow—regulatory landscapes remain fragmented; a stablecoin compliant in one jurisdiction might face restrictions or bans elsewhere. Market risks are real—despite the name “stable,” there have been de-pegging events; in extreme cases, liquidity crises could hinder redemptions.

What do these trends mean for different decision-makers?

For financial executives, stablecoins are reshaping cross-border payments, cash management, and future settlement strategies. The Hong Kong stablecoin licensing regime offers a valuable window: observing how licensed institutions implement compliance, connect with traditional finance, and improve cross-border flows will inform future strategies.

For tech strategists, the integration of AI agents and stablecoins could become the next competitive frontier. Does your company have a stablecoin payment interface? When agents pay third-party services, is the process automated and low-cost on-chain settlement? These could become product differentiators in the next one or two years.

For investors, the strategic value of stablecoin infrastructure providers warrants reevaluation. Circle, Stripe, and compliant financial institutions are key builders of the “blood system” of digital civilization. But risks—regulatory divergence, technical security, market competition—must be factored into investment decisions.

In March 2026, when OpenClaw developers wrote in their changelog, “We fix more problems than we create—that’s progress,” they perhaps didn’t realize this also applies to the evolution of digital civilization. Stablecoins have evolved from crypto trading tools to AI agents’ “local currency” and now to the blood system connecting virtual and real economies. Each step involves fixing issues and exploring boundaries. The process is far from over, but the direction is clear: as AI agents start “spending money,” stablecoins are becoming their most convenient tool and an indispensable infrastructure of digital civilization.

When your company begins deploying AI agents, are you ready to open “bank accounts” for them?

(Note: Data sources include Caixin, RWA.xyz, Artemis, DeFiLlama, Dune Analytics, x402scan.com, as of March 12, 2026. This article does not constitute investment advice. Overseas cases mentioned are not applicable within China’s regulatory framework.)