Has Bitcoin Hit Bottom? MVRV Z-Score Indicates 'Not Yet'.

After another failed attempt to break the resistance level of $74,000, Bitcoin’s price continues to fluctuate around the psychological level of $70,000, with little to no significant momentum. Some analysts expect this level to serve as a springboard for the leading cryptocurrency; however, data from a recent on-chain assessment suggests that the Bitcoin market may still experience a final correction before a true rally begins. Z-Score MVRV Historical Indicator Soon to Be Released — What Does This Mean for Prices? In a March 14 post on X, renowned market analyst Ali Martinez provided an interesting outlook on Bitcoin’s price based on on-chain data, indicating that this leading digital currency might soon establish a local bottom. This hypothesis is based on metrics derived from Bitcoin’s Z-Score MVRV indicator. To clarify, the MVRV Z-Score measures whether Bitcoin is undervalued or overvalued by comparing its market value to its realized value. When the MVRV Z-Score is negative, it indicates that Bitcoin’s price has significantly decreased relative to the average cost basis of holders. According to Martinez, there have been historical instances where Bitcoin’s Z-Score reached -0.262, followed by a strong recovery in BTC price. As shown in the chart below, these cases occurred during the bottom cycles of 2015, 2019, and 2022 — all before the start of sustained bullish trends. If historical patterns continue — as they have in the past three instances — the recent approach of Bitcoin’s price to the -0.262 level could signal that Bitcoin is nearing a phase where active accumulation becomes a trend. However, it is important to note that the Z-Score is still quite far from the critical level, currently around 0.469. For this reason, there is reason to expect prices to continue declining before reaching the projected Z-Score level. If this level is achieved, it is crucial to understand that an immediate trend reversal is not guaranteed. This is because, in previous cycles (based on MVRV data), Bitcoin’s price took several weeks — sometimes months — to establish a solid foundation before making a significant move. Therefore, a similar scenario could unfold if the Z-Score drops to that level. Market Overview As of writing, BTC is valued at approximately $71,480, reflecting a 1% increase over the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, Bitcoin has gained over 6% on the weekly timeframe.