Urea Surges 34% as Iran Conflict Ripples Through Commodities, Bitcoin

In brief

• The Iran conflict is impacting on a wide range of commodities including fertilizers, with a third of global seaborne trade typically passing through the shuttered Strait of Hormuz.
• Prediction market Myriad is tracking whether urea, which makes up two-thirds of fertilizer traffic through the Strait, will be above $610 on March 25.
• Urea prices have surged by more than 34% over the past month, to reach $601 per ton.

While headlines have focused on soaring oil prices as a result of the Iran conflict, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic is impacting a wide range of commodities, from aluminum to plastics. Nitrogen-based fertilizer urea is one of the key commodities whose supply chains have been disrupted by the conflict. Around 16 million tonnes of fertilizers, a third of global seaborne trade, passes through the Strait, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development—over two-thirds of which are urea. Prices of the fertilizer moved higher this week, with Trading Economics showing the benchmark at $601 per ton as of March 16, up more than 34% over the past month and 57.0% from a year earlier. 

A newly listed market on Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, is tracking a near-term urea threshold: whether the benchmark is above $610 on March 25. Urea is primarily used to supply nitrogen for crop growth and is also used in some animal-feed applications. Its production economics are linked to energy inputs, especially natural gas, making fertilizer prices sensitive to wider energy-market volatility. Oil has moved through the same geopolitical risk channel, with Trading Economics recently showing WTI crude near the upper-$90s amid conflict-driven supply concerns. Predictors on Myriad currently place a 65% chance on oil’s next move taking it to $120 rather than $55, down from highs of 76% yesterday. That cross-market volatility has also sparked price swings in crypto, with Bitcoin surging as high as $75,000 Tuesday morning. Analysts at QCP Capital said Monday that the cryptocurrency’s recent price action suggests the “the narrative of Bitcoin as a ‘digital safe haven’ or ‘geopolitical hedge’ may be resurfacing, with markets stress-testing that thesis in real time.”