Will Israel-Iran Conflict Push Bitcoin Further Down? Analysts Discuss

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The Bitcoin price took a sharp dip to $60,164 on Tuesday following heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with Iran launching missile attacks on Israel. The escalation rattled global markets, impacting both traditional and crypto assets. Bitcoin was not immune with a notable -4% drop.

Market participants, who had anticipated a strong bullish trend for the month dubbed “Uptober,” were forced to reassess as broader market sentiment turned risk-off. However, the reaction to the geopolitical news may be overblown, according to several analysts.

Will Bitcoin Drop Further?

Macro strategist Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) cautions on the sudden shift in market sentiment. Via X, he writes, “It’s been bizarre observing everyone turn outright exuberant and calling for ‘Uptober‘. From doom to gloom, in a heartbeat […] Conflict in the Middle East notwithstanding, this is an election year in the US. Major uncertainty lies ahead.”

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Krüger highlights the volatility typically seen in financial markets during US election years, noting, “In election years, the month of October is accordingly the most volatile, and equities historically display slightly negative returns.” He also added that speculative markets tend to react to uncertainties, and given the proximity of the elections and upcoming payroll data on Friday, further volatility can be expected.

“Of course if payrolls come in very strong this coming Friday, equities would rip, as we are in a ‘good news is good news’ regime. But the time to press & hold is after the elections, possibly starting on Election night itself,” Krüger states.

Prominent crypto analyst CRG (@MacroCRG) notes the potential for the Bitcoin price to recover despite the temporary market turbulence. “That could be the quarterly low in boys. Markets love to put in highs/lows early on in the candle. Plus, geopolitical moves have a high tendency of getting faded. We may still see some turbulence depending on Israel’s response, but the market is likely anticipating this.”

Just like Krüger, he outlines that increased liquidity in the market could provide support for Bitcoin, stating, “Liquidity will start ramping up from now, which BTC should sniff out immediately.” Overall, CRG remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory, asserting that despite the short-term uncertainties, “$100k BTC is coming.”

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Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital also provides its perspective on the conflict’s impact. In their latest investor note, the firm writes: “The Israeli-Iranian conflict has intensified, with over 180 missiles launched by Iran. Despite this, the reaction in traditional financial markets has been relatively muted. The S&P closed only 1% lower, while crude oil (WTI) increased by 2%.”

However, the crypto market saw a sharper decline, with Bitcoin facing heavier selling pressure. “BTC closed 4% lower, with support holding around the $60k level. A further escalation in the conflict could potentially push BTC to the $55k mark,” QCP notes.

Despite the immediate impact, QCP Capital’s report also stresses that the broader economic backdrop remains favorable for risk assets in the medium term. “Middle East geopolitics will steal the limelight for now, but the shallow sell-off suggests that the market remains well bid for risk assets. This minor setback shouldn’t distract from the bigger picture.”

They also point to global monetary policies as a significant factor. “The flush of liquidity from the PBoC and potential fiscal support will likely support asset prices in China, with bullish sentiment potentially spilling over globally to support risk assets, including crypto. […] Assets prices are expected to remain supported heading into 2025, as both the largest (the Fed) and 3rd largest (PBoC) central banks in the world have started their cutting cycles in earnest,” QCP concludes.

At press time, BTC traded at $61,286.

Bitcoin price, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com