PA Daily | As of this year, the proportion of 118 TGE falling below the issue price is 84.7%; Tether is developing a mobile encryption Wallet with integrated AI features.

Today's news highlights:

1. Bipartisan lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives are drafting a cryptocurrency tax bill that includes tax exemptions for stablecoins and deferral of taxes on staking rewards.

2. Tom Lee responds to the contradictory debate with Fundstrat, emphasizing the different responsibilities of analysts and varying time horizons.

3. Arthur Hayes: The existence of altcoin seasons is always there, it's just that some traders do not hold the rising coins.

4. Tether CEO confirms the development of a mobile crypto wallet integrated with AI.

5. Data: So far this year, the percentage of 118 TGE (Token Generation Events) that have broken is 84.7%, with only 15% of projects showing an upward trend.

6. F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun once tested private key security by transferring 500 bitcoins to a suspicious address, resulting in a loss of 490 bitcoins.

Macroeconomics

Bipartisan lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives are drafting a cryptocurrency tax bill that includes tax exemptions for stablecoins and deferral of taxes on staking rewards.

Congressmen Max Miller (Republican from Ohio) and Steven Horsford (Democrat from Nevada) are drafting a cryptocurrency tax bill called the Digital Asset PARITY Act. This bill will provide tax incentives for certain stablecoin transactions and delay taxation on rewards from validating blockchain transactions. The bill will exempt capital gains tax on stablecoin transactions below $200. As a compromise between the IRS's current guidance and industry requests, taxpayers will have the option to defer taxes on staking and mining income for five years, after which it will be taxed as ordinary income at fair market value. The bill will extend wash sale rules (which prevent investors from selling at a loss and immediately repurchasing to claim tax credits) to digital assets and allow traders to use a mark-to-market accounting method.

Gemini signs a joint letter defending the original intent of the “Genius Act”: trading intermediary platforms should be allowed to continue offering stablecoin rewards.

Cryptocurrency exchange Gemini announced on platform X that it has signed a joint letter with over 125 companies and organizations, urging the U.S. Congress to defend the original text of the GENIUS Act against amendments. It is reported that legal stablecoin rewards are beneficial for consumers and competition and are permitted by law in the GENIUS Act. Amending the bill would undermine certainty and innovation. Gemini co-founder Tyler Winklevoss further explained that the current GENIUS Act requires stablecoin issuers not to provide stablecoin rewards, but intermediary platforms like Gemini, Coinbase, and Kraken can, and they are already included in the current bill. If traditional bankers amend the bill to prohibit such actions, it would hinder stablecoin innovation.

Opinion

Tom Lee responds to the conflicting debate with Fundstrat, emphasizing that different analysts have different responsibilities and time horizons.

Regarding the conflicting outlooks on Bitcoin made by Tom Lee and his Fundstrat analysts, a user named Cassian, who claims to be a Fundstrat client, posted that the interpretation of this debate is unfair and misleading. Tom Lee retweeted and replied, “Well said.”

Cassian believes that the company's executives are not working based on a single unified forecast, but are instead working according to different investment goals, distinguishing between long-term macro views, risk management at the portfolio level, and technical analysis. Farrell's comments reflect a defensive positioning strategy focused on drawdown risk, capital flows, and cost basis, rather than a long-term bearish view on Bitcoin. Cassian stated that Farrell has reduced the allocation of cryptocurrencies in the Fundstrat model portfolio for risk management reasons, while still maintaining an optimistic outlook on the long-term adoption trend after early 2026.

In contrast, Tom Lee's role focuses more on the macro liquidity cycle and structural changes in the market, including the adoption by institutional investors and how ETFs are changing the dynamics of Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle. On the other hand, technical analyst Mark Newton's views are entirely based on chart structures rather than macro narratives.

Fidelity Analyst: The four-year cycle of Bitcoin is not over, expecting weak market performance in 2026.

Fidelity's Global Macro Research Director Jurrien Timmer believes that there are no signs from the charts indicating that the four-year cycle has ended. “If we line up all the bull market charts, we will find that after 145 weeks of rise, it peaked at $125,000 in October, which is very much in line with people's expectations.” He points out that the current “bear market” is expected to last until 2026, with support levels between $65,000 and $75,000.

Santiment: Crypto traders are not showing enough panic on social media, indicating that the market bottom has not yet formed.

Maksim Balashevich, the founder of Santiment, stated that cryptocurrency traders have not yet shown sufficient panic on social media to confirm that the market bottom has been reached. Bitcoin still has the potential to drop to around $75,000.

Arthur Hayes: The season of copycats has always existed; it's just that some traders do not hold the rising coins.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, stated in a podcast interview on YouTube that the altcoin season has actually always been present. “If you always say that the altcoin season has not arrived yet, it’s because you don’t hold those coins that are rising.”

Hayes stated in the podcast that many traders still expect altcoin trends to develop as they have in previous years, assuming that the same cryptocurrencies and the same strategies will repeat. However, traders should “adjust their strategies” and pay attention to new movements in the market instead of relying on history. “This is a new cycle, with new things emerging.” Hayes pointed out that Hyperliquid is “the most exciting story” of this crypto cycle so far, noting that it was initially issued at a price of “two or three dollars” and then “soared to 60 dollars.” He also mentioned Solana, with SOL dropping to nearly “7 dollars” after most of its gains in 2022, but soaring to nearly 300 dollars again at the beginning of this year.

Vitalik: Prediction markets are healthier than traditional markets and help in the pursuit of truth.

Vitalik posted on the Farcaster platform, stating that prediction markets are a remedy for the crazy viewpoints surrounding emotional issues. In theory, the worst-case scenario for prediction markets is to induce harm for profit, but that is not the case for small-scale prediction markets focused on large-scale events. The traditional stock market has similar drawbacks, where political participants can profit from disasters by short-selling stocks.

Vitalik pointed out that prediction markets have advantages over social media and mainstream media. Social media statements lack accountability, while prediction markets ensure that the system tends to seek the truth over time through a profit and loss mechanism, and the probabilities they display more accurately reflect the uncertainty of the world than other systems. Since prediction market prices are constrained between 0 and 1, they are healthier compared to ordinary markets and are less affected by reflexivity, the theory of fools, or market manipulation.

Project Updates

BitMine plans to hold its annual shareholders' meeting on January 15, 2026, to elect 8 directors and amend the company's articles of association.

Bitmine Immersion Technologies, an Ethereum treasury company listed on NYSE American under the New York Stock Exchange, announced that it will hold its annual shareholder meeting in Las Vegas on January 15, 2026. The meeting will elect 8 directors for a one-year term. In addition, it is expected that amendments to increase the number of authorized shares of common stock, the 2025 comprehensive incentive plan, and special performance compensation arrangements for the executive chairman will also be approved at the annual shareholder meeting.

The victim of the 50 million USDT phishing attack left a message for the hacker: if the funds are returned within 48 hours, a $1 million white hat bounty will be offered.

On-chain researcher Specter released a message to the hacker on the X platform regarding the loss of 50 million USDT due to phishing attacks. The message stated that a criminal lawsuit has been formally filed. With the assistance of law enforcement agencies, cybersecurity institutions, and several blockchain protocols, a large amount of actionable intelligence has been gathered regarding the activities of the attackers. The related wallet addresses are now under 24/7 monitoring. It is reported that the attackers are required to return 98% of the stolen assets to a designated address within 48 hours; if they do so, they can keep 1 million USD as a white hat bounty for discovering and disclosing the vulnerability. However, this proposal is contingent on the attackers' full and timely cooperation. Once the funds are returned, the victims will consider the matter settled and will not take further action.

Tether CEO confirms that they are developing a mobile crypto wallet integrated with AI.

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino confirmed on the X platform that Tether is developing a mobile cryptocurrency wallet with integrated AI features. He stated that the wallet will only support BTC (also supporting the Lightning Network), USDT, USAT, and XAUT, and will integrate a local private AI through QVAC.

Yesterday, news emerged that Tether's CEO released a job posting that seemingly reveals the upcoming launch of a mobile cryptocurrency wallet product.

Important Data

Data: So far this year, 118 TGEs have a break-even ratio of 84.7%, with only 15% of projects showing an upward trend.

Ash Liew, founder of Memento Research and investment director at Signum Capital, posted on X that the institution tracked 118 TGE (Token Generation Events) in 2025 and compared their current FDV with their valuations at issuance. The results showed that 84.7% (100 / 118) of the projects currently have an FDV lower than their valuation at TGE, meaning that about 4 out of 5 projects will experience a drop in price after going live; the median drop for those that do is 71% compared to their issuance valuation (67% when calculated using MC); only 15% of tokens are still in an upward trend compared to their TGE.

Vitalik has sold 114,500 KNC, 30.57 million STRAYDOG, and 1.05 billion MUZZ in the past two days.

According to monitoring by Lookonchain, Vitalik has sold 114,500 KNC (worth $22,300), 30.57 million STRAYDOG (worth $10,300), and 1.05 billion MUZZ (worth $5,600) in the past two days. Through the sale of these tokens, Vitalik obtained 32,560 USDC and 1.89 ETH (worth $5,600).

This week, NFT trading volume increased by 11.31% to $68.98 million, with the number of buyers surging by 50.28%.

CryptoSlam data shows that the NFT market trading volume increased by 11.31% over the past week to $68.98 million. The number of NFT buyers rose by 50.28% to 231,167; the number of sellers increased by 45.03% to 164,986; and the number of NFT transactions grew by 5.22%.

The Ethereum network transaction volume reached 28.15 million USD, up 36.23% from the previous week; the BNB Chain network transaction volume reached 8.67 million USD, down 19.16%; the Polygon network transaction volume reached 4.73 million USD, up 50.38%.

This week's high-value transactions include:

• Wrapped Ether Rock #38 sold for $265,594.19 (90 ETH)
• Beeple Spring Collection #100100001 sold for $186,493.03 (60 ETH)
• $X@AI BRC-20 NFT sold for $160,299.03 (1.7951 BTC)
• Autoglyphs #192 sold for $156,342.55 (55 WETH)
• CryptoPunks #5133 was sold for $131,200.81 (44.99 ETH)

F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun once lost 490 bitcoins after transferring 500 bitcoins to a suspicious address to test private key security.

Regarding the community's heated discussion about the “50 million USDT phishing attack,” F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun (@satofishi) tweeted, “Last year, I suspected that my private key had been leaked. To confirm whether the address was really stolen, I transferred 500 Bitcoin to that address. To my surprise, the hacker 'generously' only took 490 Bitcoin, leaving me with 10 Bitcoin, enough for me to make a living.”

investment and financing/acquisition

Hilbert Group acquired the high-frequency trading platform Enigma Nordic for $32 million.

Swedish investment company Hilbert Group, focused on connecting traditional assets and digital assets, has acquired high-frequency trading platform Enigma Nordic for $32 million. This acquisition will help Hilbert provide systematic cryptocurrency products to institutional investors and plans to integrate Enigma's platform into its hedge fund products.

The announcement states that Enigma's proprietary platform employs a data-driven market-neutral strategy that fully leverages the real-time price inefficiencies of the global digital asset market. The company's quantitative strategies have generated exceptional risk-adjusted returns, with a Sharpe ratio exceeding 3.0—this performance metric is extremely rare among globally scalable market-neutral digital asset strategies. As of 2025, Enigma's trading volume has surpassed 50 billion Swedish Krona (approximately 5.4 billion USD).