The macro liquidity crisis has temporarily eased, the selling trend has decreased, and Bitcoin is expected to impact $94,000.

Author: 0xBrooker

Last week can be described as a “mine-clearing week” for the global financial markets, as multiple significant data releases, interest rate events, and settlement dates occurred, gradually alleviating short-term risks in the U.S. stock market.

BTC is still in the deleveraging/repricing phase after the peak of 126,000 USD in October 2025, experiencing a 30+% pullback. The price is repeatedly testing the range of 85,000 to 90,000 and has not yet formed a trend reversal signal.

In terms of market participants' games, long positions are continuously reducing, retail investors are continuously withdrawing, while DATs and whale groups are continuously increasing their holdings. The competition is still undecided, but the selling trend is slowing down. The easing of macro liquidity has somewhat restored trading enthusiasm, and BTC is expected to hit $94,000 again in the coming weeks.

Policy, macro-financial and economic data

Multiple significant data points, interest rate events, and settlement dates in the global financial markets have sequentially emerged, reinforcing the consensus of a “moderate recession in U.S. economic employment + a gradual decline in inflation leading to a soft landing.” U.S. stocks experienced a pattern of initial decline followed by a rise throughout the week, with the market completing the equivalent of the events that have occurred, indicating a relief of short-term risks. BTC has also followed suit with U.S. stocks, ultimately rising by 0.53%.

On December 16, the U.S. Department of Labor released the non-farm employment data for October and November. Among them, non-farm employment in October decreased by 105,000, and in November, non-farm employment rebounded from a low point with an increase of 64,000 people, but it still remains weak. The unemployment rate in November rose to 4.6%, the highest point since 2022.

US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate

On December 18, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the CPI data for November, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, significantly lower than the expected value of 3.1%. The core CPI increased by 2.6% year-on-year, also considerably below the expected value of 3%. Due to the government shutdown and insufficient data collection issues, several institutions have indicated that this data may have statistical distortions, and its repeatability requires validation with subsequent December data. In a speech on Friday, Federal Reserve “number three” John Williams also emphasized this point. This means that a rate cut in January remains a low-probability event.

The unemployment rate has reached a new high in several years, and the CPI data has “dropped significantly”. Although the confidence level is lower due to collection reasons, the market still maintains its judgment that the Federal Reserve is likely to implement two rate cuts of 50 basis points each in 2026.

On December 19, the Bank of Japan unanimously approved a decision to raise interest rates, increasing the policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.75%, reaching the highest level in 30 years. At the press conference, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that future adjustments will be data-driven; he also pointed out that the current interest rate is still below the estimated neutral level range and that the real interest rate remains negative.

As the market pricing has been completed and the Bank of Japan's statement is “dovish,” the USD/JPY continued to rebound after hitting a low on Tuesday, once again approaching this year's high. This has greatly weakened the market's expectations for the impact of the yen's interest rate hike and the dollar's interest rate cut on Carry Trade. Various markets have returned to their original logical tracks.

Affected by the stabilization of the yen interest rate hike, on Friday, the U.S. market's “Triple Witching Day” (the expiration of stock index options, stock index futures, and individual stock options) showed steady performance with a notional value of 7.1 trillion in derivatives, and the three major U.S. stock indices continued to rise, closing at their highest points.

Although concerns about AI expenditures and profits have not yet been alleviated, the recent rate cuts in USD, rate hikes in JPY, and the settling of inflation and employment data in the United States have temporarily allowed the market to navigate through turbulent waters. BTC, while still hovering around the rebound low, has also temporarily lifted the macro financial risks and the liquidity shortage that had driven it down to the $80,000 low, showing potential for a rebound.

Traders are starting to anticipate the “Christmas rally” and are waiting for market guidance after the January data recovery.

cryptocurrency market

As a leading indicator of global macro liquidity, BTC has continued to decline since October, with the momentum stemming from a sell-off of high-β assets and deleveraging against a backdrop of liquidity tightening, as well as long positions reducing holdings driven by the “cyclical law.”

BTC Daily Chart

Based on on-chain data, the “long-handed group” continues to “sell off,” with nearly 90,000 BTC activated as short positions last week, of which 12,686 coins were directly converted into exchange sell-offs. The total sell-off by both long and short positions reached 174,100 coins last week, lower than the previous week but still maintained at a relatively high level.

Exchange Sell-off Scale Statistics (Weekly)

The exchange has reversed the outflow trend, showing a slight accumulation last week, which is all a pessimistic signal.

However, the exchange's 30-day rolling volume is decreasing, which means that the most frenzied selling phase in the short term is coming to an end.

Selling is increasing, but funds are flowing out.

Cryptocurrency Market Fund Inflow and Outflow Statistics (Weekly)

Since hitting the bottom on November 21, funds have gradually shown a positive inflow, but last week began to flow out, with both stablecoin channels and ETF channels seeing simultaneous outflows. This is the fundamental reason for BTC's second dip and lack of rebound strength, indicating that the sell-off has not significantly diminished, while buying power is losing. After the macro risks are alleviated, whether buying power can return this week is crucial.

From an on-chain supply perspective, currently 67% of BTC remains profitable, while 33% of the supply is in a state of loss, marking the lowest level since the beginning of this bull market.

Including on-chain and ETF channels, retail investors are still exiting the market. Buying power comes from DATs and whale groups, which, as a group with a higher success rate in contrarian operations, continue their behavior. Over the past two years of the bull market, they have shown an extremely high success rate, becoming a major force in shaping the market.

Last week, the CPI, inflation, and the initial interest rate hike of the yen were preliminarily defused. This week, whether the funds in the ETF channel return or continue to flow out may determine the short-term trend of BTC. As for the medium-term trend—whether it continues to rebound and once again challenge the short-term investor cost line of $94,000 and even recover $103,000, or completely falls back into a bear market—remains to be further determined by the competition among various trading groups.

cyclical indicator

According to eMerge Engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0, entering a “downtrend phase” (bear market).

(The above content is excerpted and reproduced with the authorization of our partner PANews, original link | Source: EMC Labs__)

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Disclaimer: This article is for market information only. All content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice, nor do they represent the views and positions of the blockchain. Investors should make their own decisions and trades, and the author and the blockchain will not bear any responsibility for any direct or indirect losses incurred by investors' trades.
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