As we enter Christmas week, the global market's initial response does not belong to the cryptocurrency market. Against the backdrop of a weakening dollar and falling U.S. Treasury yields, risk aversion sentiment has quickly intensified, with gold and silver taking the lead in the market, continuously hitting historical highs and becoming the hottest destination for funds.
In contrast, the crypto market appears unusually quiet, with Bitcoin not following the macro headwinds to soar, but instead continuing to stay in the 88,000-89,000 fluctuation range, lacking the offensive posture that should be expected before the holiday.
It is precisely against this backdrop that the question of whether Bitcoin will experience a Santa Rally has once again become a topic of repeated discussion in the market. The so-called Santa Rally is originally a seasonal phenomenon in traditional financial markets, referring to the phase of rising risk assets before and after Christmas, driven by improved sentiment and changes in liquidity. However, in the crypto market, this pattern has never been stable. This year's Bitcoin, after all,

Author: Jae, PANews

When the governance benchmark of the DeFi market collides with the realities of commercial interests, a brutal game deciding "who is the master" is unfolding within the top lending protocol Aave.
As a leader in the DeFi market, Aave not only manages approximately $34 billion in assets but is also regarded as a model of on-chain governance. However, in December 2025, Aave found itself in the most severe trust crisis it has faced in its 8-year history.
This controversy was not accidental. The initial flashpoint was merely a relatively inconspicuous allocation of front-end fees, but it unexpectedly triggered a domino effect, culminating in a series of key events that ultimately pushed Aave, the lending giant, into the spotlight.
This is not just a simple dispute over profit distribution; it has opened a rift, exposing the most fundamental and sensitive conflicts in the DeFi space.

Fidelity's Global Macro Research Director Jurien Timmer, who has been bullish on Bitcoin for the long term, has recently turned cautious. He warned that Bitcoin is likely at the end of another "4-year cycle" and will enter a correction period lasting up to a year, with the possibility of facing a "crypto winter."
Jurien Timmer pointed out that, based on historical experience, Bitcoin's trend has consistently followed a repeating cyclical pattern. From the perspective of historical rules and time structure, the current market cycle closely aligns with past transitions between bull and bear markets.
He specifically mentioned that Bitcoin reached a historic high of $125,000 this October, after experiencing a growth period of about 145 months, which completely aligns with the expected range of historical models.
Jurien Timmer stated that the Bitcoin bear market (often referred to as a "crypto winter") typically lasts about a year. He

According to a report by Bloomberg, the Insurance Authority (IA) of Hong Kong is formulating a series of new regulations to guide insurance capital towards assets including Crypto Assets and infrastructure, attempting to direct private funds into areas prioritized for government development.
According to internal briefing documents obtained by Bloomberg, the Hong Kong Insurance Authority is preparing to open the door for insurance funds to virtual assets, but remains highly cautious in risk management.
It is reported that the Insurance Authority will implement a 100% risk capital requirement for Crypto Assets; as for stablecoins, the risk capital requirements will be based on the current regulations in Hong Kong regarding the peg between stablecoins and fiat currencies.
The content of this proposal may still change, and public consultation is expected to officially commence between February and April next year, followed by submission to the Legislative Council for discussion.
The Insurance Authority, in response to an inquiry from Bloomberg, pointed out that it has already launched a risk-based capital framework this year.

The world's second largest Crypto Assets reserve company BitMine Immersion (stock code: BMNR) announced that it increased its purchase of 98,852 Ether last week, valued at approximately 300 million USD, continuing its long-term goal of accumulating 5% of the total Ether supply.
This company, led by "Wall Street Oracle" and Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, currently controls 3.37% of the total supply of Ether in the world, holding 4,066,062 coins, with a total value of approximately 12.2 billion USD.
It is worth noting that while continuing to accumulate, BitMine still holds about $1 billion in cash positions, which is almost unchanged compared to the previous week, indicating that the company retains high liquidity while increasing its stake in Ether.
However, the pressure on the books cannot be ignored either. According to

The latest report from asset management company VanEck indicates that recent Bitcoin mining activities have significantly cooled down, which, according to historical experience, may signal that Bitcoin is about to welcome long positions.
In a research report released by VanEck on Monday, it was mentioned that reviewing the market patterns since 2014, Bitcoin has a 65% chance of positive returns in the following 90 days when the overall network hash rate shows a decline; conversely, when the hash rate continues to grow, the probability of positive returns is only 54%.
VanEck analysts pointed out that empirical data shows that "the decline in hash rate may actually be a bullish signal for long-term holders" and described it as a contrarian indicator, often accompanied by "miner capitulation"—that is, when the price of coins drops, costs rise, and profit margins are compressed, financially weaker miners are forced to shut down and exit, or even sell Bitcoin to survive.
In history,

The cryptocurrency market today (23rd) is experiencing selling pressure, once again falling into turbulent correction. Bitcoin briefly rose above the $90,000 mark last night but was unable to maintain support and quickly reversed downward, breaking below $88,000 this morning; Ether also struggled against the downward trend, simultaneously losing the $3,000 threshold.
Bitcoin has recently experienced significant fluctuations in the range of $85,000 to $90,000, primarily due to the market's anticipation of the upcoming super settlement day on Friday (the 26th). The world's largest crypto assets derivatives exchange, Deribit, will have Bitcoin and Ether options worth up to $28.5 billion expiring.
Deribit Business Director Jean-David Pequignot pointed out that the scale of this settlement amount is unprecedented, accounting for more than half of the platform's $52.2 billion in Open Interest.

Analysts point out that Bitcoin is hovering around the "crucial long-term support line" and has been struggling for up to 3 weeks, keeping the long positions in the market on edge. However, as the world's largest Bitcoin holder, the listed company Strategy (MSTR) has already been the first to fall below this "safety line," sending a strong bearish signal to the crypto assets market.
CoinDesk senior analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole explains that this "safety line" is the extremely critical "100-week simple moving average (100-week SMA)" in technical analysis, which mainly reflects the average cost over the past two years. It is used by major market technical analysts to identify significant trend reversals, long-term support, or to confirm crashes.
From the trend perspective, the 100-week moving average has shown strong performance for 3 consecutive weeks.

As Bitcoin's recent trend shows signs of fatigue and market sentiment turns cautious, Citigroup has released a forecast report predicting that in a baseline scenario, Bitcoin is expected to pump to $143,000 over the next 12 months. Based on the current price of about $88,000, this implies a potential upside of 62% for Bitcoin.
Citigroup analysts Alex Saunders, Dirk Willer, and Vinh Vo pointed out in a joint report that as Bitcoin enters the new year, the price range may fall between "80,000 USD ~ 90,000 USD," mainly supported by user activity, but the real highlight will be next year.
The Citigroup analysis team predicts that as the legislative process regarding digital assets in the United States is expected to make substantial progress in the second quarter, the adoption rate of cryptocurrencies will experience a new wave of explosion.
On the technical side, the Citigroup team

CryptoQuant warns that Bitcoin demand has significantly weakened, and the market may have entered a Bear Market, with increased risks of a fall. The report indicates that if the Bitcoin price falls to $70,000, it may occur within 3 to 6 months, while $56,000 could appear in 2026. Market funds are retreating, ETFs have turned into net sellers, and the phenomenon of Large Investors withdrawing is evident, showing characteristics of a Bear Market.

Despite Bitcoin's pullback of over 30% in the past 10 weeks, which has left many investors alarmed, on-chain data suggests that the spark of long positions' market seems to remain unextinguished.
According to Glassnode data, the Bitcoin "Realized Cap" is currently firmly standing at a historical high of $1.125 trillion, indicating that there has not been a large-scale capital outflow from the market, suggesting that the bullish market structure remains solid.
Unlike the "Market Cap" (current price x total circulation) that we often see, this on-chain indicator has more reference value. The "Realized Market Cap" calculates the total value of each Bitcoin based on the "price at the last on-chain movement," removing the speculation and reflecting the "actual cost basis of investors" and the "actual capital inflow situation."
In other words, when the total market value skyrockets and plummets with the coin price,

Large Investors in Bitcoin, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), slowed down their purchasing pace before Christmas. According to a filing submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday, Strategy did not purchase any Bitcoin last week, ending two consecutive weeks of aggressive accumulation, and shifted towards strengthening their financial moat by investing $748 million into "dollar reserves."
This investment increased Strategy's cash reserves from $1.44 billion to $2.19 billion, sufficient to cover the company's preferred stock dividend payments for the next 32 months.
The "USD Reserve" established in early December this year has the core purpose of supporting the company's dividend payouts through cash buffers. On the other hand, it also provides flexible liquidity for the company during its expansion and coin hoarding strategy.
Through US dollar reserves, Strat

ETHZilla (stock code: ETHZ), backed by Silicon Valley venture capital titan Peter Thiel, has transformed into an Ether reserve company for less than half a year but suddenly hit the brakes. ETHZilla confirmed on Monday that it has sold $74.5 million worth of Ether to pay off company debts; at the same time, it announced that the company's strategic focus will shift from simple "Coin Hoarding" to a business model with greater cash flow potential in "real-world asset (RWA) tokenization."
This company, which was formerly the Nasdaq-listed biotech company 180 Life Sciences, undoubtedly poured a cold bucket of water on the hive-like imitation of Strategy's "public company Coin Hoarding craze."
ETHZilla announced on Monday that it has sold 24,291 Ether to redeem the company's outstanding preferred secured convertible bonds.

After a narrow fluctuation over the weekend, the coin market became active after the U.S. stock market opened. It briefly broke through 90,000 during the early evening, then hovered around the 89,000 level, mirroring the U.S. stock market trends. However, due to the approaching holiday, overall trading volume remained very quiet except for the spike above 90,000. The number of liquidated short positions was only about 12 million, indicating that many investors have already stepped back to observe. It is expected that if no major events occur before the end of the year, the market conditions will likely continue in this trend.
Then let's discuss a more interesting topic. According to the latest data from the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of gold reaching $5,000 per ounce by the end of June 2026 has risen to 67%, higher than the probability of ETH reaching $5,000 in the same period. Currently, the price of gold has already surpassed $4,400, coupled with the current global political situation.