Warning Bitcoin 2026 enters the "Bear Market Year"! Fidelity experts reveal the "key support level"

Fidelity's Global Macro Research Director Jurien Timmer, who has long been optimistic about Bitcoin, has recently turned more conservative. He warned that Bitcoin has likely completed another “4-year cycle” and is about to enter a year-long correction period, and he does not rule out the possibility of a “crypto winter.”

Jurien Timmer pointed out that historically, the trend of Bitcoin has followed a continuously repeating cyclical pattern. From the perspective of historical laws and time structure, the current round of market trends closely matches the previous transitions between bull and bear markets.

He specifically mentioned that Bitcoin reached a historic high of $125,000 in October this year, after experiencing a rise for about 145 months, which completely aligns with the expected range of historical models.

Jurien Timmer stated that the Bitcoin bear market (often referred to as “crypto winter”) usually lasts about a year. He therefore believes that after the recent halving cycle ends, 2026 could be a “year of consolidation” for Bitcoin. He said:

I still have a long-term optimistic outlook on Bitcoin, but my concern is that, whether in terms of price or time, Bitcoin has likely completed another 4-year halving cycle.

Since the past Bitcoin crypto winters mostly lasted around a year, I believe that 2026 may be a year of temporary truce and consolidation for Bitcoin. From a technical perspective, the key support zone below is approximately between 65,000 and 75,000 dollars.

In contrast, Jurien Timmer's view on gold is obviously much more optimistic. He pointed out that since 2025, gold has performed strongly, which stands in stark contrast to Bitcoin's relative weakness this year. Furthermore, there is no expectation for a “mean reversion” (referring to asset prices returning to long-term average levels) between the two in the short term.

According to his observations, gold is currently in a bull market, with an accumulated increase of about 65% this year. It has not only outperformed the growth rate of global money supply but has also maintained most of its gains during the recent market correction, displaying typical characteristics of a bull market.

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Tags: 20264 Year Cycle Fidelity Jurien Timmer Analysis Cryptocurrency Fidelity Market Coin Price Investment Bitcoin Bear Market Bull Market Trend