Bitcoin's "realized market capitalization" firmly holds at 1.1 trillion USD! Analysts: The market in 2026 is worth looking forward to.

Despite Bitcoin's pullback of over 30% in the past 10 weeks, which has left many investors feeling anxious, on-chain data suggests that the spark of long positions does not seem to have extinguished.

According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin's “Realized Cap” is currently firmly at the historical high of $1.125 trillion, indicating that there has not been a large-scale capital outflow in the market, suggesting that the bull market pattern remains solid.

Unlike the “Market Cap” (current price x total circulation) that we commonly see, this on-chain indicator holds greater reference value. The “Realized Market Cap” calculates the total value based on the “price at which each Bitcoin last moved on-chain,” excluding the short-term speculative hype, reflecting the “actual cost basis invested by investors” and the “actual capital inflow situation.”

In other words, when the total market value fluctuates wildly with the price of coins, the realized market value remains high, indicating that holders are reluctant to sell and that there has not been a large-scale realization of losses.

According to data from blockchain analysis company Glassnode, even though Bitcoin has plummeted over 30% from its historical high in October, the “realized market cap” has not only remained stable but has continued to rise during the correction period, consolidating around $1.125 trillion recently.

This trend reminds people of the situation when the “tariff panic” broke out in April this year. At that time, Bitcoin once dipped to $76,000, but the on-chain capital level did not recede, and subsequently, the coin price rebounded strongly and reached a new high.

In contrast to the bear market of 2022, where the plummeting coin prices shattered investor confidence, leading to a massive sell-off and causing the realized market value to bleed from $470 billion down to $385 billion. However, the market has not yet shown signs of such panic-induced “mass exodus” or “collective surrender” behavior.

As a result, analysts began to question the “4-year cycle” theory that is revered in the coin circle.

“4-Year Cycle” Narrative Shakes, Surprises in 2026?

Andre Dragosch, the European research director at the asset management company Bitwise, believes that Bitcoin is likely to break free from the “four-year cycle” and experience an unexpected surge in 2026.

He explained that, in the context of a resilient global economy and major central banks continuing to cut interest rates, the yield curve is steepening and overall liquidity is expanding. Such an environment often weakens the dollar, and historical experience tells us that a “weak dollar” is beneficial for risk assets like Bitcoin.

In my opinion, the current price of Bitcoin is severely undervalued considering the overall economic environment, comparable to the recession period during the COVID-19 pandemic and the market panic triggered by the FTX collapse. However, now, there are no signs of economic recession in the United States, but rather signals of growth accelerating again.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. All content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice, nor do they represent the views and positions of Blockchain. Investors should make their own decisions and trades. The author and Blockchain will not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from investors' trades.
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Tags: 2026 Glassnode Realized Cap Analysis Cryptocurrency Realized Market Cap Market Coin Price Investment Bitcoin Market Trend