Institutional buying returns to dominance, Bitcoin supply and demand indicators turn positive: historical data shows an average increase of over 100%
Entering 2026, the Bitcoin market is once again experiencing a key shift in supply and demand. Multiple on-chain and funding indicators show that institutional investors have resumed being the main buyers of Bitcoin, with their daily purchase volume significantly exceeding the new supply from miners. Historically, this phenomenon often signals the start of a new upward price cycle.
According to the latest data from Capriole Investments, a quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund, its “Net Institutional Buying Indicator” has recorded positive values for 8 consecutive trading days. This indicator tracks corporate treasury and US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, comparing them with the daily new Bitcoin supply from miners. Data shows that current net institutional buying exceeds miner production by approximately 75%–76%, indicating a clear supply-demand imbalance in the market.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole, pointed out that when institutional buying consistently surpasses new supply, Bitcoin prices tend to trend upward. Historical data shows that since 2020, whenever this indicator turns positive, BTC’s average increase has been as high as 109%. Even the most recent instance has resulted in about a 41% upside potential. This has led some analysts to view the current stage as a critical turning point where “Bitcoin buying pressure reasserts dominance.”
From a price perspective, Bitcoin experienced a nearly three-month correction, falling from the October high of approximately $126,200 to nearly 40% lower. However, with institutional funds re-entering the market, BTC price rebounded to over $94,000 this week, reaching a new high since mid-November, with market sentiment significantly improving.
Network economist Timothy Peterson also holds a relatively optimistic outlook on Bitcoin’s short-term trend. He noted that since 2015, there have only been 9 instances of Bitcoin declining for three consecutive months, and in about 67% of those cases, the price rebounded within the following month. Although the average rebound in such scenarios is around 15%, this statistical result still supports the possibility of Bitcoin returning above $100,000 in January.
Overall, continuous net institutional buying, recovering ETF inflows, and relatively tightening miner supply are collectively shaping a new supply-demand structure for Bitcoin. For investors paying attention to the “Bitcoin Institutional Buying Indicator,” “Bitcoin ETF Fund Flows,” and “Bitcoin Price Forecast,” the current stage may be a critical window for a new trend shift.
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