Hong Hao: Trump's impact on long-term inflation expectations is limited

On December 21, Jinshi Data reported that Hong Hao, chief economist of CICC, said that the current market Consensus believes that Trump’s accession to power can change many things in the United States and even the world. However, the medium- and long-term inflation expectations of the market have been high before he took office and have not come down. This is because in the three years of the epidemic, the total amount of Broad Money generated in the United States is equivalent to the total amount of Broad Money from the founding of the United States to 2020. In the next few years, the U.S. government’s spending will rise sharply. There is a big question mark as to whether this deficit-based fiscal policy can be sustained. The market’s misconception is that Trump alone can change the world’s pattern, but the facts and data prove that inflation expectations have not come down. And this inflation expectation is related to the entire US dollar credit monetary system.