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The global financial market is undergoing an invisible transformation. Japanese housewives, who control $15 trillion in household assets, have now become a key force influencing BTC, ETH, and even global asset allocation.
The core logic of this matter is very clear: over the past decade or so, Japanese households have adopted a seemingly perfect arbitrage model - borrowing yen at nearly zero interest rates, converting it into dollars, and investing in U.S. stocks and bonds to earn exchange rate and interest rate differentials. Even Buffett has praised this strategy.
But now the situation has reversed. The Federal Reserve has started to cut interest rates, while the Bank of Japan has raised rates to 0.75% for the first time in 30 years, quickly narrowing the interest rate differential between the US and Japan. This means that the once stable arbitrage space has completely vanished.
The more troublesome issue has arrived—these households need to repay debts borrowed in yen. The only way is to massively sell off their holdings of US stocks and bonds to convert dollars back into yen. This is not an orderly asset adjustment, but a trillion-dollar capital outflow that could trigger a global stampede.
Imagine what this means for BTC, ETH, and the entire crypto market? When the most stable and enduring buying force (household savings) suddenly turns into a seller, the impact will far exceed any institutional reallocation. This massive capital flow back from the East is becoming the biggest black swan facing the global market in 2025.
What Wall Street truly fears is not the interest rate hikes themselves, but rather the realization that the players who can truly influence the market have never been in the trading halls of the New York Stock Exchange, but are instead in the living rooms of countless ordinary families across the ocean.