When I think about the 2026 cycle, I don’t see it as a simple extension of a classic four-year bull–bear rhythm. My base case is a transition phase part late bull, part consolidation, and part reset. By 2026, much of the speculative excess from the previous run will likely be washed out, but the infrastructure and behavioral shifts built during the hype phase will remain. That makes 2026 feel less like a blow-off top and more like a selection year, where weak narratives fade and durable ones quietly entrench themselves.

From a market structure perspective, 2026 is where valuation discipline returns. Liquidity won’t be as euphoric as peak bull conditions, but it also won’t be as hostile as deep bear markets. That environment tends to favor projects with real users, real cash flows (or at least credible paths to them), and narratives that connect to off-chain demand not just crypto-native reflexivity. In other words, storytelling alone won’t be enough anymore.
Looking across narratives, AI is the most cycle-resilient, but only at the infrastructure and data layer. Tokenized AI hype will cool fast, yet compute marketplaces, decentralized data pipelines, and verifiable inference have long-term relevance because they solve real bottlenecks. What survives isn’t “AI coins,” but AI-adjacent rails that other industries need regardless of market cycles.
Real-World Assets (RWA) are, in my view, the strongest cross-cycle narrative. Tokenization of treasuries, credit, commodities, and settlement layers aligns directly with regulatory clarity and institutional incentives. Even in flat or down markets, institutions still want yield, settlement efficiency, and compliance-friendly rails. RWAs don’t need retail euphoria to grow making them structurally durable.
Layer 2s will survive, but consolidation is inevitable. The era of every L2 being investable is over. By 2026, capital concentrates in a small number of execution environments with real liquidity, strong developer mindshare, and clear economic capture. L2s stop being a narrative and start being infrastructure boring, essential, and selectively valuable.
Memes, despite how dismissive people can be, will not disappear but they are strictly cyclical. They thrive in liquidity expansions and die in contractions. A tiny number may persist as cultural artifacts, but as an allocation, memes are opportunistic, not foundational. I treat them as volatility instruments, not long-term holdings.
DePIN sits somewhere in between hype and durability. The concept is powerful token-incentivized physical infrastructure but execution risk is massive. By 2026, only DePIN projects with real usage, non-crypto customers, and defensible unit economics will matter. The rest will quietly fade once subsidies stop.
My core allocation logic is built around survivability, not upside alone. First, I ask: Does this narrative still make sense if token prices go sideways for two years? Second: Is there a clear mechanism for value accrual, not just usage? Third: Does this benefit from regulatory clarity rather than fear it? Anything that fails those tests stays small or purely tactical.
In practice, that means a core allocation to BTC and ETH as monetary and settlement layers, a meaningful tilt toward RWA and select AI infrastructure, a selective basket of dominant L2s, and a small, actively managed sleeve for high-beta narratives like memes and early DePIN. The goal isn’t to predict the loudest trend it’s to be positioned where capital naturally settles once the noise fades.
If 2024–2025 are about acceleration, then 2026 is about gravity. What survives is what can stand on its own when momentum disappears.
‍#2026CryptoOutlook