2026-01-06 13:26:36

Polymarket's valuation forecast for Opinion exceeds $1 billion, which is roughly in line with my algorithmic valuation system.

Conservative valuation (referencing Aster's 16.3x) approaches Aster's conservative cash flow pricing: 67.2M × 16.3 ≈ $1.1B market cap

Neutral valuation (referencing average multiples of Aster, Lighter, and Hyperliquid at 27.4x) taking the mean valuation multiple of annual revenue from the three major mainstream Perp protocols, serving as a more market consensus-aligned assessment: 67.2M × 27.4 ≈ $2.8B market cap

Optimistic valuation (referencing valuation premiums of Lighter and Hyperliquid): 67.2M × 28.6 ≈ $1.9B market cap

Referencing Hyperliquid's premium level of approximately 37x, Opinion's FDV could potentially reach $2.5B market cap

Under protocol revenue pricing, @opinionlabsxyz's reasonable FDV range is $1.1B to $2.5B. Below $1B constitutes obvious undervaluation. When the sentiment and prediction market narrative fully opens up, above $1.5B is acceptable to the market.

ASTER-3,63%

LIT-2,27%

HYPE-3,92%

PERP-1,53%

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