#美国宏观经济数据 Seeing this data and commentary, I've got to be straight with you: Trump touting 4.3% GDP growth and praising tariff policies, but then the Fed's Hammack turns around saying "inflation is still a major problem, we need to keep rates steady through spring"—these two voices contradict each other, what does that tell us? It means the underlying logic hasn't been sorted out yet.

I've seen this too many times on-chain. On one hand, everyone's shouting the economy is improving, on the other hand, they're worried about sticky inflation. This is the core contradiction in market pricing. 61 economists got their forecasts wrong, only a few guessed right—sounds great, but don't get seduced by the narrative of "I'm smarter than the experts"—the real danger isn't whether predictions are right or wrong, it's that when optimistic expectations and inflation concerns exist simultaneously, market volatility becomes the perfect moment for profit-taking.

Tariffs lifting GDP, strong consumption—the data looks beautiful, but is there really no inflation? The Fed's attitude already told the story—what they see in reality is different from the press releases. This is my hard-earned lesson: when macro data looks beautiful, that's often when risks are most hidden, especially when official positions diverge. Don't get swept up in short-term prosperity, this situation will keep tightening before spring. Stay vigilant, make your moves only when the wind direction truly clears up.