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Dan Bin said that the iron law of the US stock market has never changed.
Almost every year sees a pullback of more than 10%, which is the normal state of market operation, not the end of risk.
Looking back over the past three years,
In August 2024, the yen rate hike triggered capital repatriation, and US stocks adjusted accordingly;
In March-April 2025, escalating trade frictions led to panic sentiment and index decline; In February-March 2026, intensifying Middle East geopolitical conflicts sparked market turbulence again.
The three pullbacks had different triggers, yet jointly proved one fact: any major bull market cannot escape the baptism of volatility.
Extending the time dimension, the S&P 500 index over decades has frequently experienced intra-year corrections exceeding 10%, yet long-term annualized returns remain robust.
Most of these fluctuations stem from short-term noise such as geopolitical conflicts, policy shifts, and trade disputes, which appear to have strong impact but have never shaken the core trend of industrial upgrading. Just as the internet's emergence was fraught with bubble bursts and regulatory tightening, yet nothing could stop the pace of technological revolution reshaping the world.
Today's artificial intelligence era is replaying this historical trajectory. As a new round of productivity revolution, the process of AI technology implementation, industrial penetration, and profit realization is destined to be accompanied by valuation disagreements and sentiment fluctuations.
Most investors fail by being swept up in short-term noise, panicking during pullbacks and exiting positions, then chasing highs after recovery, ultimately missing the opportunities of the era.
True long-term investing lies in seeing through volatility to the essence. There's no need to be anxious about routine annual pullbacks; instead, they should be viewed as opportunities to position in quality assets.
Ignoring short-term disruptions and adhering to the core narrative of the AI revolution—this resolve to resist noise is the key to traversing cycles and capturing the dividends of the era.
Great eras are never smooth sailing; only by believing in the long term and adhering to value can one become the ultimate winner.