Bitunix Analyst: Waller publicly supports December interest rate cut, Fed's divergence becomes the biggest uncertainty in the market.
BlockBeats news, on November 18, The Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Christopher Waller publicly expressed support for a 25 basis point rate cut at the December meeting, focusing on the ongoing weakness in the labor market and concerns about pressure on middle and low-income consumers. Waller defined this as “risk management-style rate cuts,” believing that in the absence of official data, it is better to provide insurance in advance to avoid rapid deterioration of employment. Meanwhile, internal hawkish voices at the Fed have not diminished, with several split votes making the next decision full of uncertainties—whether to maintain the interest rate or cut again, at least three opposing votes may emerge. Policy expectations are no longer one-sided, and the market needs to hedge between the “possibility of a rate cut” and “intensified policy divergence.” Under this policy haze, the crypto market has shown significant pressure. The current panic index is 12, with trading volume surging 51% in the past 24 hours, and market shocks have sharply amplified; the total liquidation amount in derivatives in the past 24 hours reached $911.57 million, of which long positions accounted for $631.31 million, and short positions $280.23 million. On-chain and ETF flows show insufficient support, with profit-taking selling pressure and continued net outflows of ETF funds, leading to a rapid price response due to liquidity gaps in a short time. Bitunix analyst's view: Waller's dovish signals can briefly boost risk asset expectations in the early stages of the news, but in the context of data vacuum and intensified FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) divergence, it will only amplify two-way volatility. We are focusing on three event-driven price paths: if ETF net outflows stop and large investors step in at the $85,000 - $90,000 range, BTC is expected to rebound to $100,000 first; if derivatives chain liquidations and more long-term holders accelerate their selling, falling below $85,000 - $88,000 will quickly guide prices down to the deep liquidity zone of $75,000 - $77,000. Key short-term observation points: 1) FOMC voting dynamics and Waller's subsequent comments; 2) daily net flows of ETFs and the frequency of large wallets cashing out; 3) the synchronous changes in PUT/OI (put options open interest) and implied volatility—if all three worsen in the same direction, the market will shift from structural repricing to accelerating declines.
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