CICC: If Hassett becomes Fed Chair, US Treasury yields and the dollar may first fall and then rise

According to DeepFlow TechFlow, on December 8, Jinshi Data reported that a research report from CICC stated that, under the baseline scenario, if Hassett becomes the new Federal Reserve Chair, it could cause US Treasury yields and the US dollar to dip initially before rising, and would overall be positive for US stocks. From a timeline perspective, Trump is expected to announce the nomination of the new chair in early 2026. For Hassett, he would first need to be nominated as a Federal Reserve Governor and confirmed by the Senate, then nominated as chair and confirmed again. After the current chair, Powell, completes his term in May 2026, Hassett would officially become chair and could preside over the June FOMC meeting at the earliest. The first quarter of next year will be a key period when the new chair’s nomination begins to influence market expectations. If Hassett makes overly dovish statements at that time, it is possible that US Treasury yields and the dollar could fall more than expected in the short term. However, as long as he does not cross the line to the extent of raising concerns about the Fed’s independence, expectations being met combined with a US economic recovery could lead Treasury yields and the dollar to turn upward.