Why do people say that the bottom of the crypto market may have already passed?

Author: Alertforalpha

Compiled by: Plain Language Blockchain

Are yen carry trades being unwound again? Is this the reason for the crypto crash?

If you’ve been on social media today, you’ve probably seen the panic. Everyone is saying this is a repeat of August 2024.

But the reality is: things may not be as you imagine.

Why it may not be yen carry trades

The narrative is simple: investors buy cheap yen to purchase high-yielding assets (like US tech stocks or crypto).

Now, with Japanese bonds surging, they’re supposedly forced to sell these assets back for yen.

Sounds scary, right?

But this theory has two big holes.

1. No spike in the yen

If everyone was scrambling to buy back yen to repay loans, the yen’s value against the dollar should be surging.

But it’s not.

Compared to last week, it’s basically flat.

2. Leverage is already gone

A macro analyst—someone who has traded yen their entire career—noted months ago that most of the reckless leverage was already cleared out during the August crash.

Traders took heavy losses and did not re-enter the same trades with the same intensity.

So if it’s not a massive global unwind, what is it?

The real culprit: Algorithms and the calendar

The most boring explanation is usually the correct one.

We just flipped the calendar to December. This is prime time for:

• Institutional rebalancing
• Tax-loss harvesting
• Automated risk resets
• The “Algo Flush”

As midnight (UTC) for the new month approaches, these adjustments likely trigger sell orders to reset hedges and adjust risk inventories.

It’s not emotional; it’s mechanical.

Institutions are selling underperforming assets (like Bitcoin they bought at the top) to account for gains elsewhere by year-end.

That explains why the sell-off is coordinated and mechanical—because that’s exactly what it is.

What to watch next

Bitcoin hit resistance at the daily Bollinger Band moving average, causing this chop.

But as long as we hold the $80,000 — $82,000 range, the structure remains intact.

This week is packed with macro data:

• Monday: Jerome Powell speech
• Wednesday: ADP Unemployment and ISM Services PMI
• Friday: PCE inflation and jobs data

Expect chop, expect volatility.

But don’t let the “yen panic” narrative scare you into selling your positions.

The worst of the leverage wipeout may already be over.