Citi: Upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls Report May Send More Conflicting Signals

BlockBeats News, December 14 — The Financial Times of the UK analyzed that the US non-farm payroll report to be released next Tuesday will include data from October and November, ultimately providing policymakers and investors with a more complete picture of the US labor market, ending months of partial blind spots. After a highly divided meeting this week, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to a three-year low, with several officials dissenting, arguing whether to prioritize addressing high inflation or the soft labor market. Citigroup economists pointed out that the upcoming employment report may send more conflicting signals. The bank expects around 45,000 job losses in October but an increase of 80,000 in November. Citigroup economists noted that this rebound may be more related to seasonal data adjustments rather than a “true improvement in worker demand.” They also forecast the unemployment rate will rise from 4.4% to 4.52%, while a Reuters survey of economists showed an unemployment rate of 4.4%. The Federal Reserve’s own quarterly forecast indicates that the median unemployment rate by the end of this year will be about 4.5%. (Jin10)