XRP Today News: Japan's interest rate hike expectations and delays in US legislation are double bearish factors, causing XRP to fall below $1.9

XRP price encountered significant selling pressure on December 15, dropping 3.95% to $1.8993, hitting a new low since November 21. The decline was mainly driven by the combined impact of two major negative factors: the panic over unwinding yen carry trades due to the upcoming Bank of Japan rate hike, and the unexpected delay in the US crypto market structure bill review process. Although short-term technicals have turned bearish, analysis suggests that strong XRP spot ETF capital inflows and long-term expectations for crypto-friendly legislation still provide key support for the medium-term trend. The market is engaged in a fierce tug-of-war between short-term macro headwinds and long-term fundamental bullishness.

Yen Carry Trade Unwinding: Why Does the Bank of Japan Movement Affect XRP?

This week’s XRP decline surprisingly has a close connection to Tokyo, Japan. The market widely expects the Bank of Japan to announce a 25 basis point rate hike on December 19. This expectation has pushed the 10-year Japanese government bond yield close to the critical psychological threshold of 2%, triggering deep concerns among global risk asset investors about “unwinding yen carry trades.”

Understanding this chain is crucial. For years, Japan’s prolonged ultra-low interest rates have led international investors to borrow low-cost yen, exchange it for USD or other high-yield currencies, and invest in various risk assets including US Treasuries, tech stocks, and cryptocurrencies. This is known as “carry trade.” Once the BOJ begins rate hikes while the Federal Reserve is in a rate-cutting cycle (market expects a 51.7% chance of a rate cut by March 2026), the interest rate differential between Japan and the US will narrow rapidly. This will significantly compress or eliminate the profit margins of carry trades.

The direct consequence is forced liquidation: selling risk assets like XRP denominated in USD to buy back yen and repay loans. This process withdraws liquidity from global markets and exerts broad pressure on risk assets. There are historical precedents: after the BOJ tightened policy at the end of July 2024, XRP plummeted 34.5% within days. Therefore, the policy guidance from BOJ Governor Ueda after the rate decision, especially regarding the “neutral interest rate” level, will be a decisive factor influencing XRP’s short-term movement.

Legislative Delays: Market Structure Bill Postponement Impacts Policy Confidence

If the BOJ’s moves are an external macro shock, then the stagnation of US crypto legislation is a heavy internal confidence blow. The much-anticipated “Market Structure Bill” has had its key committee review postponed to early 2026.

This bill aims to establish a comprehensive and clear regulatory framework for the US digital asset market, seen by industry as a crucial step to end regulatory ambiguity and attract large-scale institutional participation. For Ripple and XRP, which have fought the SEC for years, clear legislation would be a fundamental positive. When the bill passed the House in July, XRP surged 14.69% in a single day, reflecting market expectations.

However, with this week being the last legislative week of the year, the Senate Agriculture and Banking Committees failed to schedule bill reviews. This delay not only makes legislative passage before year-end unlikely but also signals to the market that the process is complex and potentially volatile. Without clear legal protections, some institutional investors may adopt a wait-and-see approach, weakening a key short-term buying support for XRP. The high sensitivity between legislative progress and price movement again highlights XRP’s unique role as a “regulatory barometer” asset.

Technical Analysis and Bull-Bear Battle: Key Price Levels Determine Short-Term Direction

Under the pressure of negative fundamentals, XRP’s technical pattern has also shifted significantly. Monday’s price drop broke below the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, a widely watched short-term bearish technical signal.

From a purely technical perspective, the market has entered a critical battleground. Bears are attempting to push the price toward the November 21 low of $1.8239. If this level is broken, further decline toward $1.75 support is possible. Conversely, bulls’ defenses are clear: initial resistance is around $1.90, and the psychological level of $2.00 is a “lifeline” for reversing the short-term trend. If the price can regain and hold above $2.00, buying confidence will be boosted, and the price could challenge the 50-day moving average at $2.1974.

XRP Short-Term Key Technical Levels Analysis

Core Support Levels:

First support: $1.8239 (November 21 low)

Second support: $1.75

Key Resistance Levels:

Initial resistance: $1.9112

Psychological level: $2.0

Technical resistance: 50-day EMA (2.1974), 200-day EMA (2.4413)

Bull-Bear Threshold: Whether XRP can recover and stabilize above $2.0 is the core determinant of whether the short-term trend will reverse.

This technical setup reflects the current fundamental contradiction: short-term bearish pressure caps upside, but medium-term bullish factors (ETF capital inflows, potential legislation) serve as guiding lights. Traders are closely watching the battle between $1.8239 and $2.0, which will serve as a preview of future movements.

Medium-Term Outlook: Finding Support Amidst Headwinds

Despite the short-term clouds, several structural factors still support a bullish outlook for XRP over the 4-8 week horizon. Spot ETF capital inflows are currently the most tangible bullish indicator. Similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, sustained net inflows represent steady institutional demand within a compliant framework, which is a key stabilizer for prices.

Meanwhile, US macroeconomic data could serve as an “unexpected helper.” If employment and inflation data released this week continue to show economic cooling, it will reinforce market expectations of a Fed rate cut in early 2024. This “Fed pivot” narrative can offset some of the liquidity tightening caused by the BOJ rate hike, providing a breather for the risk asset market.

Looking further out over an 8-12 week cycle, the progress of the Market Structure Bill early next year and the increasing practical utility of XRP in cross-border payments remain core drivers pushing the price toward $2.5 or even $3.0. The market is undergoing a stress test: examining how the ecosystem and institutional adoption will develop in the absence of short-term legislative catalysts.

What is XRP? A Deep Dive into Ripple’s Core Asset

To understand why XRP’s price is so sensitive to regulation, one must first know what it is. XRP is the native cryptocurrency supported by Ripple Inc., based on the open-source distributed ledger technology — XRP Ledger. Unlike Bitcoin’s proof-of-work, XRP Ledger uses a unique consensus mechanism, enabling faster transaction confirmation and extremely low energy consumption.

Its core design goal is to serve efficient cross-border payments and asset settlement. Financial institutions can use XRP as a bridge currency to quickly and cheaply convert between different fiat currencies. Therefore, XRP’s value proposition is deeply tied to the adoption by banks and payment service providers. As a result, any legislative progress affecting crypto regulation directly impacts the willingness and compliance costs for financial institutions to use XRP, which in turn can cause sharp price swings.

What is the Market Structure Bill? Why Is It a “Watershed” for the Crypto Industry?

The US’s ongoing review of the Market Structure Bill is not just about XRP; it could become a foundational law shaping the future trajectory of cryptocurrencies in the US for years to come. The bill’s core goal is to clearly classify digital assets: which tokens are commodities regulated by CFTC, and which are securities regulated by SEC. It also aims to establish clear registration and operational rules for exchanges, custodians, and intermediaries.

For the industry, passing this bill means “regulatory certainty.” It will eliminate one of the biggest risks—policy crackdowns—facing projects and investors. Clear rules can attract trillions of dollars of traditional capital and define safe boundaries for innovation. That’s why every development in the bill’s progress immediately impacts prices of XRP, Ethereum, and other major assets. It’s no longer just legislation; it’s a key indicator of whether cryptocurrencies can truly integrate into mainstream finance.