Bitwise and Grayscale's Major Prediction: The Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is Dead; 2026 Will Hit a New All-Time High

Top cryptocurrency asset management firm Bitwise and Grayscale have successively released market outlooks for 2026, unanimously predicting that Bitcoin will break the traditional “four-year cycle” pattern and set new all-time highs next year. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan pointed out that the forces driving the old cycle (halving, interest rates, leverage) have weakened, and that the continued influx of institutional capital and clearer regulation will become the new dominant logic. Additionally, the report forecasts that Bitcoin’s volatility will continue to stay below that of leading tech stocks like Nvidia, and its correlation with the US stock market will further decrease, signaling a shift from a highly volatile speculative asset to a more attractive strategic allocation in global investment portfolios.

The Dusk of the Cycle Law: Why 2026 Will Break the Historical Script?

Based on Bitcoin’s nearly “law-like” four-year cycle pattern since its inception—where three years of significant gains are followed by one year of deep correction—2026 is expected to be a “correction year” for the market. However, Bitwise explicitly states in its report: “We do not expect this to happen.” This bold assertion is not made out of thin air but is based on a structural analysis of the cycle drivers.

Traditional cycles are shaped by three core forces: the supply shock from Bitcoin halving, the liquidity tides triggered by the global interest rate cycle, and the accumulation and clearing of leverage within the crypto market. Bitwise believes that the effectiveness of all three is waning. First, mathematically, each halving’s impact on new supply diminishes over time; second, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to be in a rate-cutting cycle in 2026, which is the opposite of the rate-hiking environment of 2018 and 2022; third, after a record leverage liquidation in October 2025, the market’s risk structure has become healthier, and with improving regulation, the probability of systemic “爆雷” (catastrophic failure) has greatly decreased.

Instead, a more powerful and enduring new driving force is emerging: the institutional wave. Since the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2024, a trickle has turned into a river. Bitwise predicts that 2026 will be a key year when traditional large wealth management platforms like Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch begin systematically allocating crypto assets for their clients. Meanwhile, the pro-crypto regulatory shift established after the 2024 US elections (such as the “GENIUS Act”) will accelerate in 2026, attracting Wall Street and fintech companies to put these policies into practice.

Markers of a Mature Asset: Volatility Convergence and Decoupling from Correlation

The stereotype of Bitcoin as “highly volatile” is rapidly being corrected by data. Bitwise’s report reveals a surprising fact for many traditional investors: throughout 2025, Bitcoin’s volatility remained below that of the star tech stock Nvidia. This contrast is highly symbolic—a asset often criticized as high-risk speculation has achieved greater price stability than a company regarded as a “modern industrial cornerstone.”

This long-term downward trend in volatility is no coincidence. The report notes that Bitcoin’s volatility has steadily declined over the past decade, reflecting a fundamental “de-risking” transformation as an investment asset. The core behind this is the diversification of investor structures: funds entering via ETFs and other traditional financial instruments behave differently from early retail investors, acting as market “stabilizers.” Bitwise expects this trend to continue into 2026.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s correlation with the US stock market (represented by the S&P 500) is also expected to further decrease. Although media often portray “Bitcoin moving in tandem with US stocks,” data shows that its 90-day rolling correlation with the S&P 500 rarely exceeds 0.5—indicating moderate correlation. Bitwise believes that in 2026, driven by crypto-native factors such as regulation and institutional adoption, Bitcoin will break out into an independent trend, even if the stock market faces pressure due to valuation concerns or economic slowdown. The combination of low correlation, high return potential, and reduced volatility forms an ideal “triple play” in portfolio theory.

Bitcoin vs. Traditional Assets: Key Feature Evolution Comparison (Based on Bitwise Predictions)

Volatility Evolution:

• Bitcoin (2017-2020): Annualized volatility often above 100%, regarded as an extremely risky asset.
• Bitcoin (2025): Volatility has fallen below Nvidia (NVDA).
• Trend analogy: Similar to gold’s long-term stabilization after ETF launch in 2004.

Market Correlation:

• Historical perception: Commonly believed to be highly synchronized with US stocks.
• Data reality: 90-day rolling correlation with the S&P 500 mostly below 0.5 (moderate range).
• 2026 forecast: Correlation will further decrease as crypto-native drivers (regulation, adoption) surpass macro sentiment.

Cycle-driven logic:

• Old paradigm (pre-2022): Dominated by halving events, retail sentiment, and high leverage, leading to cyclical booms and busts.
• New paradigm (2026): Driven by institutional capital flows, clear regulatory frameworks, and long-term holders, leading to steady growth.

The Institutional Era: How New Narratives Reshape Valuation Logic?

Grayscale’s report echoes Bitwise’s outlook, defining 2026 as the dawn of the “Institutionalization Era” in the crypto market. The core feature of this era is a fundamental reshaping of valuation logic. Historically, Bitcoin’s bull markets often featured vertical surges exceeding 1000% in a short period, driven mainly by retail FOMO (Fear of Missing Out). In this cycle, the largest annual gain is about 240%, with a slower but more stable foundation. Grayscale interprets this as the result of sustained institutional buying rather than retail chasing.

Two main pillars support this institutional narrative. First is macro hedging demand: against the backdrop of expanding global public debt and long-term challenges to fiat currency credibility, Bitcoin’s role as a scarce, non-sovereign, digital store of value is increasingly recognized. Second is the improvement of regulation and infrastructure: with bipartisan efforts in the US to pass comprehensive crypto market legislation in 2026, paving the way for traditional finance to access blockchain networks at scale and compliantly. Currently, the proportion of managed assets in the US allocated to crypto is less than 0.5%, leaving enormous growth potential.

This shift is already evident on a micro level. US banks now allow their financial advisors to recommend Bitcoin ETFs, opening access to their $3.5 trillion client assets. This “Wall Street pipeline” means Bitcoin’s purchasing power will come from a deeper and more stable capital pool. Although on-chain data shows short-term holders are under pressure, the long-term trend points to a market structure where ETFs, listed company bonds, and sovereign entities continuously absorb new supply far exceeding annual production. This qualitative change in supply-demand dynamics is the underlying logic behind predicting a breakthrough beyond 2025’s highs and reaching new heights.

Market Divergence and Short-term Challenges: The Road Ahead Is Not Smooth

Despite the optimistic long-term outlook, the path to 2026 still faces practical turbulence. Currently, Bitcoin trades around $85,000, significantly below the 2025 peak, and remains below the average cost basis of short-term holders (about $104,000), resulting in an unrealized loss of over 12%. This pattern reflects the market’s pain in digesting prior gains and clearing leverage.

Some on-chain indicators also show seemingly contradictory signals. For example, CryptoQuant data indicates that long-term holders are distributing coins at one of the fastest rates in the past five years, a behavior often seen at cycle tops. However, this is precisely the complexity of a market transition: some early investors are taking profits, while institutional buyers continue to build positions. This “turnover” is characteristic of assets transitioning from early adopters to broader mainstream acceptance.

In the short term, macroeconomic data releases and geopolitical events will continue to cause volatility, as seen recently when Bitcoin dropped nearly 4% in a single day amid market risk-off sentiment. However, the core argument of Bitwise and Grayscale is that these short-term disruptions no longer define Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. Its fate in 2026 will depend not on next month’s employment data but on whether institutional allocation percentages rise from 0.5% to 1%, whether regulation becomes clearer, and whether the narrative of Bitcoin as a store of value further takes root among mainstream investors.