How to interpret complex signals from the unexpectedly strong US employment data and Bitcoin prices?

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) latest data shows that in November, non-farm employment increased by 64,000, far exceeding market expectations of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, reaching a new high since September 2021. This employment report, which sends complex signals, triggered intense volatility in Bitcoin prices: initially surging above $87,000, then pulling back, and again attempting to break the $88,000 level. As the first major macroeconomic report since the Fed cut interest rates last week, it highlights the market’s difficult balancing act between strong employment data and potential economic cracks, making the upcoming CPI inflation data critically important.

Employment Data Breakdown: Complex Signals Behind a Strong Surface

The U.S. November non-farm employment report presents a subtle contradiction, forcing market participants to delve into the details behind the numbers. The most striking figure is the addition of 64,000 jobs, significantly above expectations and reversing the setback caused by a 105,000 job cut in October due to federal government layoffs. Some economists interpret this rebound as evidence that the labor market has not experienced substantial deterioration, especially amid uncertainties from the Trump administration’s aggressive trade policies.

However, the apparent strength is offset by a key indicator: the unemployment rate jumped from 4.4% in September to 4.6%, reaching a four-year high. But the reliability of this data is questionable due to the 43-day government shutdown’s aftermath. The shutdown caused October unemployment data to be unavailable for the first time since 1948, and the November household survey data collection was affected, with higher standard errors than usual. Therefore, many analysts suggest paying more attention to private sector employment growth, which has averaged 75,000 per month over the past three months. This steady momentum is viewed as a key basis for the Fed’s decision to pause rate cuts at the January meeting.

Wage growth slowdown adds another dimension to this picture. November’s average hourly earnings increased by 3.5% year-over-year, the lowest since May 2021. While this is positive for inflation control, it also hints at potential pressure on consumer spending. Coupled with stagnant retail sales data for the month, it suggests that while the labor market has not collapsed, its capacity to drive economic growth is weakening.

Core Indicators of U.S. November Employment Data and Market Impact

Key Data:

• Non-farm employment: +64,000 (expected +50,000, previous -105,000)
• Unemployment rate: 4.6% (expected 4.5%, previous data not released due to shutdown, September was 4.4%)
• Wage growth: Average hourly earnings up 3.5% YoY (previously 3.7%), growth rate continues to slow

Data Characteristics and Disruptions:

• Government shutdown impact: October data missing; November household survey affected by “rotation bias” and higher standard errors
• Structural changes: Federal employment has decreased by 271,000 since its peak in January
• Industry distribution: Healthcare (+46,000), construction (+28,000) lead; transportation and warehousing (-18,000) decline

Market Immediate Reactions:

• Bitcoin: Volatile, briefly surpassing $87,000, intraday gains near 2%, attempting to challenge $88,000
• Traditional markets: U.S. stocks decline, dollar index weakens, U.S. Treasury yields fall

Market Immediate Reaction: Bitcoin’s “Rollercoaster” Ride

Once released, this contradictory report immediately caused sharp fluctuations in the crypto market. Bitcoin’s price response clearly reflects investor confusion and re-pricing: after the data was announced, BTC surged rapidly above $87,000, then retraced to around $86,800 as markets digested the information, only to regain upward momentum, with intraday gains approaching 2%, again challenging the psychological and technical barrier of $88,000.

This “rollercoaster” pattern essentially results from a game of multiple interpretations of the data. On one hand, employment growth exceeding expectations is often seen as a sign of economic resilience, potentially reducing the urgency for the Fed to initiate a new round of rate cuts, which traditionally is bearish for zero-yield assets like Bitcoin. On the other hand, rising unemployment and slowing wage growth reinforce expectations of an economic slowdown and that the Fed will ultimately maintain an easing stance, supporting risk assets. After the brief chaos, markets seem to lean more toward the latter, favoring liquidity benefits.

Meanwhile, traditional financial markets show divergence: stocks decline, the dollar weakens, and bond yields fall. This asset performance combination further confirms that the market interprets this report more as a “sign of growth slowdown” rather than “overheating risk,” reducing concerns about imminent tightening. For Bitcoin, this environment diminishes its short-term positive correlation with traditional risk assets, making it more likely to be driven by its own narrative (such as spot ETF flows, upcoming halving cycles, etc.).

Deep Dive: Why Do Contradictory Data Trigger Complex Reactions?

To understand why markets react so intricately to this report, one must look beyond individual data points and consider the broader macro narrative and monetary policy outlook. This report is the first major data release since the Fed’s 25 basis point rate cut last week and its hint at possibly pausing rate hikes. Fed Chair Powell previously mentioned “significant downside risks” to the labor market, so any data indicating employment weakness amplifies market expectations for policy shifts.

Despite strong non-farm figures, cracks in the report—such as rising unemployment, slowing wage growth, ongoing federal employment declines, and weak retail sales—provide grounds for the Fed’s cautious stance. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee also noted that he expects more rate cuts this year than the median forecast, contingent on further inflation decline. Therefore, the delicate balance in the employment data makes the CPI inflation report due on December 18 extremely critical, as it will directly influence the Fed’s decision at the January meeting.

Additionally, the extended government shutdown and its impact on data quality add further uncertainty for policymakers and markets. When high-quality, coherent data is unavailable, investors tend to remain cautious, which may partly explain Bitcoin’s oscillations after surging. The market awaits more concrete evidence to determine whether the economy is heading toward a “soft landing” or a deeper slowdown.

Forward Outlook: CPI Data as the Next Key Indicator

Looking ahead, both crypto and traditional markets are quickly shifting focus to the next key event: the November U.S. CPI inflation report. This report is decisive for the Fed’s next move. If CPI data shows inflation continuing to steadily decline toward the 2% target, the Fed may have more room to consider preemptive rate cuts to support growth, which would be positive for risk assets including Bitcoin.

Conversely, if inflation unexpectedly rebounds or remains stubborn, it could reinforce the “higher for longer” rate stance, possibly reigniting rate hike fears. In this scenario, economic slowdown and the shadow of stagflation could weigh on markets, putting downward pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.

For Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory, $88,000 remains a critical technical and psychological resistance level. Whether it can be effectively broken and held depends not only on macroeconomic signals but also on internal crypto market factors, such as spot ETF fund flows and on-chain holder behavior. From a broader cycle perspective, as recent reports from institutions like Bitwise suggest, Bitcoin’s long-term narrative is increasingly driven by institutionalization and regulatory clarity. Short-term macro shocks may cause volatility, but they are unlikely to reverse its gradual integration into mainstream asset allocations.

In summary, this contradictory U.S. employment report acts like a prism, reflecting the current macroeconomic complexity and divergent market expectations. Bitcoin’s sharp swings are a direct manifestation of the rapid shift between narratives of “economic resilience” and “growth slowdown.” It once again proves that in today’s financial environment, Bitcoin prices have become an extremely sensitive macro barometer of global liquidity expectations. As Fed policies enter a more nuanced “deep water” phase, every economic data point can trigger waves. For investors, while paying attention to CPI and other key indicators, understanding the strengthening of Bitcoin’s fundamental drivers—such as ETF channels and evolving regulatory frameworks—will be crucial in building a more solid long-term foundation to withstand increasing macro turbulence.