Fidelity analyst: Bitcoin in 2026 is a "fallow year," with a support range of $65,000 to $75,000.

Fidelity Macro Chief Timmer points out that the four-year cycle may be reaching a phase end, estimating that if Bitcoin continues to decline in 2026, it will test support at $65,000–$75,000.
(Background: The largest Bitcoin options expiry in history is approaching! Glassnode: Market still prices in downside risk, BTC volatility may erupt in the new year)
(Additional context: No Bitcoin, big explosion! Modern Group headquarters received an explosion threat email, the suspect demands 13 BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) has been hovering around $88,000 in the past 24 hours, with very narrow fluctuations, while Ethereum is very close to $3,000 but has yet to break above it. Meanwhile, Fidelity Investment’s Global Macro Head Jurrien Timmer recently compared historical charts, directly indicating that the peak of Bitcoin’s “four-year halving cycle” may have already appeared. In the coming year, investors may face a period of low momentum and rest.

$126,000 may become the cycle high

Timmer overlaps the 2025 trend with the end of the 2013 and 2017 bull markets, finding similar price and time trajectories. He points out that ETF buying has cooled, institutional profit-taking has increased, and the positive effects of Trump’s victory have been priced in, all contributing to Bitcoin’s pullback from its high to the $87,000 range.

Therefore, Timmer judges that “the expansion phase has entered its final stage.” However, from a technical perspective, if $126,000 is viewed as the 2025 peak, the current approximately 30% retracement remains moderate. Timmer emphasizes that this does not negate a long-term bull market but is a typical mid-term correction.

While I remain a secular bull on Bitcoin, my concern is that Bitcoin may well have ended another 4-year cycle halving phase, both in price and time. If we visually line up all the bull markets (green) we can see that the October high of $125k after 145 months of rallying fits… pic.twitter.com/Uxg9DTccnt

— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) December 18, 2025

Resting year support zone 65,000 to 75,000

Looking ahead to 2026, Timmer, citing the historical pattern that “bull markets tend to be weak the year after,” estimates that the market will enter a year of dormancy. If the downtrend continues, $65,000 to $75,000 will provide the first support, overlapping with the dense trading zone at the beginning of 2025.

From a high point, a drop to $65,000 represents about a 48% correction, placing it in the middle of the historical winter.

Additionally, shrinking ETF net inflows, RSI retreating to around 55, and potential chain selling pressure after losing the $80,000 level are seen as cooling signals. CryptoSlate’s analysis also suggests that if the rebound cannot re-enter the $94,000 to $105,000 resistance zone, the bearish advantage will persist.

In summary, he advises investors to hold cash, diversify risks, and wait for the price to fall to $65,000–$75,000, which may be an opportunity to add positions again; if BTC reverses and breaks above $100,000, this forecast should be reassessed.

Patience and risk management are still necessary conditions to get through the winter.