After topping in the $120,000-$125,000 zone earlier in October 2025 and then sliding into the mid-$80,000s, Bitcoin is near $87,700 on the daily chart, and the setup looks like an easy excuse to lock in profits and start the year fresh.
That is where the history problem starts. Across the monthly return heat map, January posts an average gain of +9.76% and a median of +9.54%. February is also positive on average at +14.3%, while March’s median flips negative at -2.19%, showing that early-year strength exists, but it is uneven.
Yes, January is not always green for BTC. It delivered -32.1% in 2015, -28.1% in 2018 and -16.9% in 2022, so the warning is not “January always pumps,” it is “January often punishes sellers who expected an easy exit.”
The year-end mix adds context: November averages +36.6%, but December’s median is -2.68%, meaning many late-year exits happen into noise.
Why not?
The “do not sell into January” case is less about superstition and more about positioning. End-of-year selling often happens for practical reasons, and when that supply is done, price can rebound fast on lighter resistance.
In recent years, January printed +39.9% in 2023 and +29.6% in 2020. Even 2025 opened with a +9.54% January before latecomers spoiled the party.
None of this guarantees a rally. But if BTC enters January already down from its 2025 peak and sitting below the psychological $90,000 line, history says the bigger risk may be selling too late, not too early.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
BTC Falls 0.62% in 15 Minutes: Trading Volume Surge and Large Capital Sell-off Trigger Leverage Liquidation Cascade
2026-03-17 05:30 to 05:45 (UTC), BTC recorded a -0.62% return rate within 15 minutes, with price range between 73895.5 to 74456.3 USDT and amplitude of 0.75%. Market short-term volatility intensified, with increased attention, indicating frequent trader activity and notably amplified fluctuation risk.
The main driver of this price movement is a significant increase in trading volume and large BTC fund flows from on-chain to exchanges, with sell orders dominating the market and pushing short-term prices downward. On-chain monitoring data shows increased frequency of large transfers exceeding 100 BTC.
GateNews5m ago
"Rich Dad Poor Dad" Author Warns Asset Bubble Will Burst, Predicts BTC Soars to $750,000
Investor Robert Kiyosaki predicts that Bitcoin will reach $750,000 and Ethereum will reach $95,000 following a global financial crisis, warning that "the biggest asset bubble in history" is about to burst. He emphasizes the importance of holding gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies to resist fiat currency depreciation. While his predictions have sparked debate, with critics arguing they lack empirical support, supporters remain optimistic about the long-term value of scarce assets.
MarketWhisper27m ago
Cango Announces 2025 Financial Results: Full-Year Total Revenue of $688 Million, Sold 4451 Bitcoin in February
Cango announced its 2025 financial results with total revenue of $688 million, generating 6,594.6 bitcoins, Q4 revenue of $179 million, and net loss of $622 million. The company disposed of 4,451 bitcoins to reduce liabilities and completed a $10.5 million capital increase and a $65 million new financing agreement.
GateNews29m ago
Maji Big Brother Enters Again, Going Long on BTC, ETH, and HYPE
The crypto market has regained activity, with renowned trader DJ Machi (Huang Li-cheng) re-entering the market to go long, increasing his bullish positions in Ethereum and Bitcoin. Despite floating profits exceeding $1.4 million, he still needs $27.7 million to break even. Facing past losses, his continued investment has become a market focal point.
ChainNewsAbmedia48m ago
A certain hedge fund whale has built a position of 45 million USD betting on a weakening ETH/BTC exchange rate, with current floating gains of 200,000 USD.
On March 17th, Hyperinsight monitored a hedge whale establishing BTC long positions and ETH short positions with 20x leverage, each approximately $22 million, totaling $45 million. Currently, the BTC long position shows an unrealized loss of $230,000, the ETH short position shows an unrealized gain of $420,000, with an overall unrealized gain of $200,000. This whale frequently hedges commodity positions through crypto holdings and favors short-biased strategies.
GateNews49m ago
MICA Daily | BTC Stable Above 30-Day Moving Average, Continues to Show Bullish Outlook
According to Binance data, Bitcoin's moving average convergence divergence indicator shows significant improvement in its price trend structure, with current trading price around $73,000, and moving averages in a divergent state, reflecting a market transition phase. Technical analysis indicates that the 30-day moving average is of high importance; if the price maintains above this moving average, it indicates buying support, otherwise it may enter a correction phase. Investors will judge the trend based on changes in moving averages.
区块客57m ago
