Michael Saylor sends another "green dot" signal: Strategy may increase the position in Bitcoin, indicating a counterattack?

Michael Saylor, the Executive Chairman of MicroStrategy (now renamed Strategy), once again sent a signal to the market about potentially increasing Bitcoin holdings on December 21 through a mysterious tweet titled “Green Dot Guiding Orange Dot.” This move comes at a time when the company's stock price (MSTR) has fallen 43% within the year of 2025 and faces the risk of being removed from the MSCI Global Index, which could trigger over $11.6 billion in dumping. If Saylor's hint ultimately materializes, it aims to lower the company's average holdings cost of Bitcoin on one hand, and on the other hand, it is to declare to the market that its treasury strategy of “fully betting on Bitcoin” is unwavering in the face of the current severe liquidity crisis and regulatory scrutiny.

Saylor's “Green Dot” Code: A Well-Planned Market Signal

In the cryptocurrency market, Michael Saylor's tweets have long transcended personal opinions, evolving into market signals that require careful interpretation. On December 21, 2025, he published the “Green Dots ₿eget Orange Dots” graphic, which is the latest example of his signature communication strategy. This tweet is not without purpose; it directly points to the company's official website's “SaylorTracker” portfolio visualization chart, where green dots typically represent new cash reserves, while orange dots indicate those converted into Bitcoin. Saylor alludes to the company's intention to once again convert reserves into Bitcoin, with a clear and firm message.

Looking back at history, Saylor's “forecast-official announcement” model has formed a fixed routine. He often releases crypto signals on social media over the weekend, and then confirms huge purchases through official documents from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday morning. This model not only whets the market's appetite but also ensures that every move he makes receives maximum attention. The uniqueness of this signal lies in its background: the current Bitcoin price is facing strong resistance around $90,000, and Strategy Company itself is caught in a dual dilemma of plummeting stock prices and the possibility of being “kicked out” of mainstream indices. Saylor's choice to speak out at this moment, rather than being a confident offensive horn for the future market, is more of a defensive declaration aimed at stabilizing morale and demonstrating determination.

The market's interpretation of this signal also exhibits complexity. On one hand, investors are well aware of Saylor's consistent actions and words in the past, and any new increase in holdings will solidify his position as the “world's largest publicly traded company Bitcoin holder.” As of the time of writing, Strategy Company holds 671,268 Bitcoins, valued at approximately 5.03 billion USD, accounting for 3.2% of the total Bitcoin supply. On the other hand, some analysts have reminded that Saylor's “green dots” have previously been used to forecast operations such as Bitcoin dividend reserves, so whether this merely refers to direct purchases remains uncertain. In any case, this tweet has successfully shifted the market's focus from the company's declining stock price to the sustainability of its Bitcoin strategy, at least temporarily.

MSCI Exclusion Risk: The $11.6 Billion “Sword of Damocles” Hanging Overhead

However, Saylor's optimistic signals cannot mask the most direct and severe threat currently facing Strategy: the risk of being removed from the MSCI Global Index series. The international authoritative index compiler MSCI has raised considerations in its latest quarterly review, believing that Strategy essentially resembles an investment holding company rather than an operating enterprise, which may conflict with its index compilation classification principles. A qualitative dispute over the nature of the company is triggering a financial tsunami that could sweep billions of dollars in funds.

loss of market confidence

In the face of this existential threat, Strategy has launched a fierce defense. The company publicly claims that MSCI's proposal is “arbitrary, discriminatory, and unworkable,” criticizing it for targeting digital asset companies while ignoring other investment conglomerates that hold substantial assets. In its statement, Strategy emphasized: “The proposal improperly injects policy considerations into index compilation, contradicting the current policy direction in the U.S., and will stifle innovation.” The essence of this confrontation is how the traditional financial system categorizes and accepts new companies that consider cryptocurrency as a core asset. Saylor's potential new Bitcoin purchase actions are given a dual mission in this context: to lower the average cost during market price corrections and to demonstrate to the market with real money that, regardless of how index companies view it, its strategy of transforming into a 'Bitcoin-based' enterprise remains unwavering.

Enterprise Bitcoin Treasury Strategy: An Innovative Paradigm or a High-Risk Bet?

The current situation of Strategy Company provides an excellent case study for the “corporate Bitcoin treasury” strategy that has been popular in the crypto industry and among some traditional tech companies over the past few years. This model, pioneered by Saylor, is based on the core logic that companies raise fiat funds by issuing bonds or stocks, continuously purchase and hold Bitcoin for the long term, aiming to transform the company's balance sheet into a financial instrument that directly benefits from Bitcoin appreciation. During the bull market, this strategy created an astonishing wealth effect, with MSTR's stock price increase several times that of Bitcoin itself.

However, the market correction in 2025 ruthlessly revealed another side of the strategy: extremely high financial leverage and stock price volatility. When the Bitcoin price fell more than 30% from its historical high of about $126,000 in October 2025, the MSTR stock's drop (43%) significantly exceeded that of the underlying asset. This exposed the vulnerability of such “Bitcoin concept stocks”—their valuation includes not only the net asset value of Bitcoin but also significant market sentiment and liquidity premiums. When the tide goes out, this portion of the premium evaporates quickly, even turning into a discount.

This presents an interesting contrast to the long-term structural bullishness championed by Tom Lee of Fundstrat. Lee often emphasizes the importance of capturing the “supercycle” and believes that the current AI boom combined with blockchain technology will create historic opportunities. His viewpoint serves long-term investors who allocate 1%-5% of their assets to cryptocurrencies. In contrast, Saylor's strategy is an all-in approach that leaves no room for retreat, heavily reliant on a single path—the long-term, one-sided rise of Bitcoin prices. The risk preferences and investment frameworks of the two are entirely different. Current market conditions indicate that even if the long-term narrative remains intact, short-term regulatory risks (such as the MSCI review) and liquidity shocks are sufficient to deliver a fatal blow to such high-leverage strategies. For other enterprises considering imitation, the case of Strategy serves as a vivid lesson in risk education: while embracing innovative assets, one must remain highly vigilant about the robustness of capital structures, the complexities of regulatory compliance, and the extreme volatility of market sentiment.

Investor Insights: Seeking Balance Between Frenzied Signals and Cold Reality

For the vast number of participants in the cryptocurrency market, Michael Saylor's “green dot” and the predicament of Strategy Company provide multi-layered insights. The foremost point is that one must learn to penetrate marketing narratives and examine core financial risks. Saylor is an indisputable master of Bitcoin advocacy and an outstanding capital operator, and his signals always attract attention. However, investors need to focus on more essential data: the company's debt-to-asset ratio, the average cost of Bitcoin holdings, the premium or discount of the stock price relative to the net asset value of Bitcoin, and the potential regulatory and liquidity risks faced. The current potential discount of MSTR stock relative to the value of its Bitcoin holdings reflects the market's high pricing of its unique risks.

Secondly, any single market signal or forecast should be viewed rationally, regardless of how authoritative its source may be. The cryptocurrency market is known for its high volatility, and even the most seasoned players cannot accurately predict short-term trends. As revealed by the pattern that many aggressive price predictions made by various institutions for 2025 at the end of 2024 mostly failed to materialize, the success rate of attempting to predict specific price points and timing is very low. A more robust approach is to focus on structural trends, such as the accelerated embrace of cryptocurrency by traditional finance through tools like ETFs, as well as the continuously expanding spot ETF market for virtual assets in places like Hong Kong.

Finally, for publicly traded companies that adopt similar “financial strategy” (such as BitMine, chaired by Tom Lee), investors can learn from their claimed discipline of navigating bull and bear markets: maintaining a clean balance sheet, avoiding excessive debt, and focusing on continuously increasing the number of core crypto assets held per share over the long term. For individual investors, in a volatile market, it is far more important to adopt dollar-cost averaging, build a diversified asset portfolio (not limited to Bitcoin, but also including Ethereum and other core assets), and strictly manage risks, rather than chasing a single signal from a big player or attempting to “catch the bottom” of a highly volatile concept stock. In the crypto world, narratives drive the market, but only solid fundamentals and a clear awareness of risks can help investors navigate cycles and survive until the next moment when the “green dot” truly shines.