2026 Bitcoin reaches a historical new high? Galaxy: The trend is too chaotic to predict.

Alex Thorn, the research director at Galaxy Digital, stated in a post on December 21 that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of 2027. However, the trend in 2026 is too chaotic to predict, but it is still possible for Bitcoin to set a new historical high in 2026.

Extreme Uncertainty in Options Market Pricing

(Source: Galaxy)

The biggest feature of the Bitcoin forecast for 2026 is the extreme uncertainty presented by the options market. By the end of June 2026, the probability of Bitcoin falling to $70,000 or rising to $130,000 is almost equal. This means that from the current $89,000, the chances of a 21% drop or a 46% rise are the same. Even more exaggerated is the year-end forecast: the probability of falling to $50,000 or rising to $250,000 is similarly close, representing an extreme price difference of 44% downward or 181% upward from the current price.

This pricing indicates that market participants are completely unable to reach a consensus. Optimists believe that factors such as institutional adoption, clearer regulations, and support from the Trump administration will drive Bitcoin to new highs. Pessimists, on the other hand, are concerned about macroeconomic recession, regulatory reversals, or technical crashes. Both sides are evenly matched, resulting in options pricing showing a “bimodal distribution” — not a moderate rise or fall, but rather either a significant increase or a significant decrease.

Three Major Sources of Uncertainty for Bitcoin in 2026

AI Capital Expenditure Deployment Speed: If the AI investments of tech giants slow down, it could trigger a collapse in tech stocks and affect the crypto market.

Changes in Monetary Policy Environment: If the Federal Reserve restarts interest rate hikes due to a rebound in inflation, or accelerates rate cuts due to a recession, it will have a dramatic impact on Bitcoin.

US Midterm Election Risks: If the Democrats regain Congress in the November elections, Trump's crypto-friendly policies may be overturned.

Thorn clearly pointed out that at the time of writing this article, the overall cryptocurrency market was deeply entrenched in a bear market, and Bitcoin has yet to re-establish clear bullish momentum. Before BTC firmly stands in the range of $100,000 to $105,000, there are still short-term downward risks. This statement shows that even long-term bullish institutional analysts acknowledge the current market structure is fragile.

Maturation trend of structural decline in volatility

From the annual performance perspective, Bitcoin's long-term volatility has structurally decreased, partly due to larger-scale hedging sales and the introduction of Bitcoin yield generation strategies. It is noteworthy that in the current BTC volatility smile curve, the pricing of put options at the volatility level is higher than that of call options, which was not the case six months ago.

This transformation is crucial. In emerging growth markets, call options are usually more expensive than put options, as investors are more concerned about missing out on a surge (FOMO) rather than a drop. However, in mature macro asset markets (such as gold and oil), put options tend to be more expensive, as investors place more importance on downside protection rather than upside speculation. Bitcoin is experiencing this transformation, indicating that it is shifting from a “speculative asset” to an “allocative asset.”

This trend of “maturation” may continue. Whether Bitcoin continues to fall and approaches the 200-week moving average, the maturity of its asset class and the degree of institutional adoption are continuously increasing. The year 2026 may be a relatively dull year for Bitcoin, regardless of whether it ultimately closes at $70,000 or $150,000, Galaxy's bullish judgment on its long-term prospects will only become more firm.

This expression is very subtle. Thorn is actually saying that 2026 might be quite boring, with prices possibly not rising or even falling, but this doesn't affect the long-term bullish logic. This is an investment philosophy of “short-term uncertainty, long-term bullishness.” For long-term investors with a positioning strategy, the volatility of 2026 is just noise; however, for short-term traders, this extreme uncertainty presents a huge challenge.

The support logic for the 250,000 USD target in 2027

Thorn predicts that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of 2027. Based on the current $89,000, this implies an approximate increase of 181%, equivalent to nearly tripling the price within two years from now. This target is not set arbitrarily, but is based on a systematic analysis of institutional adoption and the monetary policy environment.

The continuous expansion of institutional access is resonating with the gradually loosening monetary policy and the market's urgent demand for non-US dollar safe-haven assets. In the next two years, Bitcoin is likely to be widely accepted as a devaluation asset similar to gold. This narrative of “Bitcoin = digital gold” is the theoretical basis for the $250,000 target.

The specific path may be: in 2026, it will fluctuate violently between 70,000 and 150,000 USD, experiencing multiple false breakthroughs and deep pullbacks, purging leverage and short-term speculators. In early 2027, when macro uncertainties dissipate, institutional allocation windows open, and if the Republican advantage is maintained in the Trump midterm elections, Bitcoin may initiate the final wave of a major bullish trend, accelerating from 100,000-150,000 USD to 250,000 USD.

Disappointingly, the price level of Bitcoin at the end of 2025 seems to be roughly the same as the price level at the beginning of the year. The first ten months of this year experienced a real bull wave, reaching an all-time high of $126,080 on October 6. However, after the frenzy, the market faced shattered hopes, as disappointing macroeconomic conditions, changes in the investment environment, a collapse in leverage, and massive sell-offs by whales intertwined, disrupting the market balance.

Although prices may drop in 2025, this year will still see real institutional adoption and lay the groundwork for the next phase of true revitalization in 2026. In the coming year, Galaxy expects stablecoins to surpass traditional payment systems, tokenized assets to penetrate mainstream capital and collateral markets, and enterprise-level payments to transition from pilot phases to actual settlement phases. Additionally, public chains will rethink their value acquisition methods, DeFi and prediction markets will continue to expand, and AI-driven payments will ultimately be realized on-chain.

For investors, Galaxy's forecast provides a clear risk-reward framework. If one believes in the $250,000 target for 2027, the current price of $89,000 is an extremely attractive entry point. However, one must be mentally prepared: it may first drop to $50,000-$70,000 in 2026, which requires a very strong psychological endurance and capital management ability. If one cannot withstand a 50% drawdown, one should not participate heavily. A more cautious strategy is to accumulate positions in batches, gradually building up during the fluctuations of 2026, rather than making a full bet all at once.