Bitcoin has reached a high of $88,000, but the threat of quantum computers has made the upgrade timeline of 5 to 10 years the new focus of the market, revealing the vulnerabilities and costs of decentralization governance. (Background: Fidelity analyst: Bitcoin will be a “fallow year” in 2026, support range of $65,000 to $75,000) (Background Supplement: Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will bottom out and rebound in January: The Fed will effectively implement QE, I am All-in with 90% of my assets)

Table of Contents

• The Cost of Decentralization: Collective Action Over a Decade
• The tech-savvy remain calm, while the capitalists feel anxious.
• 25% “Sleeping Coin” Unveils Security Flaws
• Betting under Quantum Countdown

The price of Bitcoin is expected to maintain a high level of $88,000 by the end of 2025, and the first year of the Trump administration can be described as calm. However, behind the seemingly stable market, a wave of anxiety about the survival structure is spreading— the shadow of quantum computers.

The Cost of Decentralization: Collective Action in a Decade Interval

Casa co-founder Jameson Lopp recently suggested that upgrading Bitcoin to the standards capable of resisting quantum attacks in the “post-quantum era” may take 5 to 10 years. He emphasized that Bitcoin is facing a typical collective action problem.

“Making thorough modifications to the agreement and completing an unprecedented capital migration can easily take 5 to 10 years.”

The lack of rapid updates from the CEO's directives means that every change to Bitcoin has to go through consensus voting by global miners, node operators, and developers. This deliberately slowed mechanism constitutes the “democratic cost” of a network worth trillions of dollars.

The technical faction is calm, while the capital faction is anxious.

The tech circle is not in a hurry to sound the alarm. Blockstream CEO Adam Back and JAN3 CEO Samson Mow have repeatedly emphasized that current quantum computers are even struggling to factor “21”, which is insufficient to shake the Bitcoin encryption layer. They advocate for cautious advancement to avoid introducing new vulnerabilities for the sake of long-term risks. In contrast, the capital markets appear nervous. Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards warned in the related technology debate records that if quantum-resistant solutions are not implemented before 2028, a drop in confidence could cause prices to fall below $50,000. The venture capital circle is even more worried about the “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later” strategy: attackers first store encrypted data and wait for ten years until quantum hardware matures to crack it, meaning there is very little margin for error in the long upgrade cycle.

( 25% “Sleeping Coin” Reveals Security Flaw

The specific numbers are also unsettling. Currently, about 25% of Bitcoin remains in P2PK legacy addresses that are vulnerable to Shor's algorithm attacks, with a cumulative market value of hundreds of billions of dollars. Even if the community advances proposals like BIP-360 for mixed signatures, if holders do not actively transfer, these “sleeping Bitcoins” are still exposed to quantum threats. The data size of quantum-resistant signatures could be 4 to 32 times larger than current solutions, meaning that future on-chain transaction fees and block sizes will expand accordingly, and network congestion may become the norm.

) Betting under Quantum Countdown

From governance efficiency to physical limits, the quantum migration of Bitcoin is a marathon that tests consensus, patience, and capital costs. A decade on Wall Street and Silicon Valley is almost equivalent to eternity, yet it is a necessary rhythm for maintaining the security of decentralized systems. In the next 5 to 10 years, investors not only need to monitor the market but also pay attention to whether the underlying protocols successfully evolve. Only by traversing the quantum winter can Bitcoin continue to defend the narrative of “digital gold.”

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